Seeking to neutralize threats, Israel is conducting diplomacy with its sworn enemies even though it is aware that the strategic aims of the likes of Syria and Hamas ultimately may get in the way of the desired result.

The Israeli military needs to provide the tools to bolster the diplomacy — while preparing for the likelihood of its collapse.

To demonstrate that no agreement can last if missiles are pointed at its main cities, Israel may have to act militarily on at least one front. Will it be Lebanon? Syria? Iran? Defense Minister Ehud Barak indicated yesterday to senior members of his Labor Party that any military confrontation will most likely happen in Gaza. “We are on track for a confrontation with Hamas,” he said. “It could erupt in days, or maybe weeks.”

The defense minister, hedging his bets, said a negotiated cease-fire in Gaza would delay such a confrontation by “months.” The shuttle diplomacy that Egypt’s intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, is conducting between Hamas and Israel is aimed at achieving tahadiyeh, an Arabic word that means a temporary period of nonbelligerence. Hamas’s leaders have made it clear that any such agreement will provide breathing room for rearming and preparing for the next round, not a long-term peace.

Hamas appears to be modeling itself after Syria and Iran’s other regional proxy, Hezbollah. Left unchallenged, Hamas is fast becoming a formidable army. Israel’s head of internal security, Yuval Diskin, told Prime Minister Olmert’s Cabinet on Sunday that missiles from Gaza can already reach the country’s main seaport, Ashdod, where they may soon wreak as much havoc there as they now do in border towns and the city of Ashkelon.

Hence the diplomatic frenzy: The regional press regularly reports on Mr. Suleiman’s “progress” in the Gaza tahadiyeh negotiations and on Israel’s and Syria’s imminent plans to resume their yearlong secret negotiations through Turkish intermediaries. The leader of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, celebrating the eighth anniversary of the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, hinted in a televised speech yesterday that the German negotiating back channel between Jerusalem and Hezbollah could soon see the release of two Israeli soldiers kidnapped in 2006.

But let’s peek under the hood of these near-breakthrough secretive talks that always involve third parties:

President Assad of Syria, unlike his late father, is less interested in regaining control of the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967, than he is over Lebanon. Mr. Assad will take the Golan “if the international community allows him to also annex Lebanon,” the Likud Party’s ranking member on the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Yuval Steinitz, told me last week, What Israel wants in return for its sacrifices (and those of its neighbor) is for Syria to cut ties with its sugar daddy, Iran, and their military proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah.

Over the weekend, Iran expressed concern about Syria’s overtures toward Israel. But yesterday Syria’s defense minister, Hassan Turkmani, flew to Tehran for talks with President Ahmadinejad, who sounded reassured. “I am sure that the leadership of Syria will vigilantly manage the scene and will never set back from the front line until complete demolition of Tel Aviv regime,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

“Syria is interested in advancing the diplomatic process,” the Israeli army intelligence unit’s chief of research, Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, told Knesset members yesterday, according to Israeli press reports. Damascus nevertheless continues to arm Hezbollah and bolster its presence near the Lebanese-Israeli border, General Baidatz said, adding: “The Syrians are not even contemplating a change in their relations with Iran.”

The trick is how to calibrate the military generals’ ideas and those of the diplomats. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni traveled to Paris yesterday to coordinate Israel’s next moves, after meeting with her French counterpart, Bernard Kouchner, last week in Jerusalem. Meanwhile, the army’s chief of staff, Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi, told Israeli reporters recently that after months of opposing an extensive operation to dismantle Hamas’s missile infrastructure in Gaza, he now favors such a move.

Mr. Olmert, after vowing to resign if he is indicted on corruption charges — which may well arrive before he makes any decision — said last week that he can negotiate “painful concessions” with Mr. Assad and President Abbas of the Palestinian Authority at the same time. Even if he can, the prime minister may also need to show some muscle to strengthen the hand of the diplomats. Gaza could be his last chance to remind the region that the failure of diplomacy is not without consequences.

bavni@nysun.com