LUXEMBOURG – Until a couple of weeks ago, the idea that the people of Luxembourg might vote “no” to the draft European constitution was not just far-fetched, it was risible.

Yet even here in the Grand Duchy, the tiny country, which, by some yardsticks, has gotten more out of the European Union than any other, polls show opposition to the constitution rising fast.

A Luxembourg “no” in its July 10 referendum would be a political humiliation for the European project that would end once and for all talk of keeping the document alive through the ballot box.

In an attempt to concentrate the voters’ minds, the popular prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, has reaffirmed a vow to resign if they vote “no.”

But, as in France and Holland, ordinary voters seem unmoved by their rulers’ rhetoric. A poll last Thursday showed the “no” vote at 38%, up six points, with the “yes” camp at 46%.

Such skepticism is all the more remarkable as, with a mere 460,000 inhabitants, Luxembourg is not just well installed on the European gravy train, it has its own terminus.

Despite being one of the richest countries in the world, it is, by a huge margin, the largest per capita recipient of funds from the E.U. budget.

As a reward for being one of the six founding members of the European Economic Community, Luxembourg is home to such major E.U. agencies as the European Court of Justice, as well as administrative departments of the European Commission and European Parliament.

Luxembourg, with a population similar to Liverpool’s, has its own E.U. commissioner and holds the European Union’s rotating presidency – setting the agenda for all 450 million citizens. Yesterday, E.U. foreign ministers were in Luxembourg for a summit, to the rage of almost all involved, the result of the rule that all council of ministers meetings take place here, rather than Brussels, for three months every year.

With the country on the receiving end of so much largesse, support for the European Union has always been effusive.

Only one party in Parliament, the right-wing populist ADR, has come out against the constitution.

Its leader, Gast Giberyen, has only five members of parliament and 2,100 members. But his campaign for a “Europe of nations, not a European state,” has struck a chord with Luxembourgers, worried about losing their influence and identity after the European Union’s expansion to 25.

“It’s true that for 50 years, we have been winners from Europe,” said Mr Giberyen, a bearded former steelworker. “But the enlargement of Europe has been too rapid.”

The Dutch and French “no” votes have emboldened his compatriots, who were too afraid to speak out, he said.

“Even me, if all the other 24 E.U. countries were sure to vote ‘yes,’ I wouldn’t have the courage to ask Luxembourgers to vote ‘no’ – we’re too small. But now, we’re not alone any more.”

In the Place de Paris, locals eating at open-air french-fry stalls were divided between the “yes” and “no” camps, but united in their qualms about the European Union.

Joseph Gaspard, 52, broke off from demolishing a plate of fries and mayonnaise to vow that he would vote “no.”

“We’ve gained from Europe, but we’ve lost, too,” he said, noting that Luxembourg banks had to provide more information about account-holders to foreign taxmen.

A 69-year-old nun, Sister Marie-Therese, will be voting “yes,” reluctantly. “What makes me unhappy is our borders are open, so there’s a lot more crime. But it’s good to unite Europe and be strong, so I’ll vote ‘yes.'”