Olmert’s Kadima Coalition ‘May Not Last’

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As Israel tries to digest the implications of the results of Tuesday’s election, top politicians involved in negotiations over the coalition warned yesterday that the government emerging from the talks might be too fractured to last for long, forcing a new election campaign.


Prime Minister-Elect Olmert received a significant boost yesterday from Secretary of State Rice, who for the first time expressed an American endorsement for his plan to take unilateral steps to redraw Israel’s border if the Palestinian Arabs fail as negotiation partners.


But Israeli voters gave Mr. Olmert’s Kadima Party only a tepid endorsement in the election on Tuesday, and some said yesterday that the days of a coalition headed by Mr. Olmert might be numbered. The clearest indicator came from the chairman of the Yisrael Beiteinu Party, Avigdor Lieberman.


“We are already preparing ourselves for the next election campaign, when we will become the top governing party,” Mr. Lieberman, known by his nickname, Ivet, told Israeli newspapers.


Many dismissed Mr. Lieberman’s statement as a tactic meant to improve his negotiating position in the coalition talks. But even some Kadima Party officials acknowledged that the election gave them very little room to maneuver in the negotiations, and that the emerging government might be short-lived.


“Ivet is probably jockeying for position when he says the government would not last long, but his observation, sadly, might be correct,” a senior Kadima coalition negotiator told The New York Sun yesterday. “It is extremely difficult to maintain a government for a long time when the largest party in it commands less than 30 seats.” The negotiator asked not to be named, citing the sensitivity of the talks, which he said were only in the preliminary stages.


Still, Kadima received some encouragement yesterday as the central election committee published the final vote tally. After counting 180,000 late-arriving ballots, Kadima’s representation grew by one seat in the 120-member Knesset. It will now command 29 seats, while Yisrael Beiteinu lost one seat and will have only 11. The updated numbers put Yisrael Beitenu behind the Sephardic-Orthodox party Shas and the defeated right-wing Likud, each of which will now command 12 seats.


With 20 seats, Labor is the second largest party. Its leader, Amir Peretz, met in Tel Aviv yesterday with the leader of Shas, Eli Yishai, and talked with other heads of smaller left-wing parties. Calling for a new “social-democratic bloc,” Mr. Peretz is banking on a coalition of niche parties like the Pensioners Party, the far-left Meretz, and Shas, which lobby for increased government funds for various causes.


“We are seeking the finance portfolio, period,” a senior Labor member, Eitan Cabel, told Channel 1 television yesterday. The powerful position of finance minister, however, also is sought by Kadima. Mr. Olmert, who supports an open market, might find it difficult to hand over Israel’s economy to the left.


The Tel Aviv stock market has lost 3% of its value since Tuesday’s election. The drop in the market on Lilienblum Street is said to be due to fears that pro-market measures taken by the previous government, when Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu held the finance portfolio, will be reversed once Labor joins the coalition.


Mr. Olmert “does not exclude any party as a coalition partner,” including Likud, the Kadima coalition negotiator told the Sun yesterday. Even Mr. Netanyahu, Kadima’s nemesis, who has been hammered by critics after Likud’s defeat on Tuesday, “could get one of the economic portfolios in the new government,” the negotiator said.


Political analysts, however, warned that Kadima officials who are promoting a coalition with Likud might be engaged in political “spin” meant to scale back demands by Labor negotiators. They told reporters that top Likud legislators, led by a former foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, have already launched an internal revolt against Mr. Netanyahu in an attempt to seize the leadership from him.


Also, they pointed to a speech in Jerusalem yesterday by Mr. Olmert at a memorial for past presidents and prime ministers, at which he highlighted the slain Labor prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin, and his drive for peace in the Oslo years.


In endorsing Mr. Olmert’s plan yesterday, Ms. Rice told reporters in Berlin: “I would not on the face of it say that we do not think there is any value in what the Israelis are talking about.”


In his election night victory speech, Mr. Olmert said he would attempt to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority leader, Mahmoud Abbas, but that if that failed he would take unilateral steps to redraw the borders.


Separately, Canada’s new conservative government announced yesterday that it would cut off aid to the new Hamas-led Palestinian Arab government.


“It is no surprise,” the outgoing Palestinian Arab foreign minister, Nasser Al-Kidwa, told the Sun yesterday, after ceding office to his Hamas successor. But he said he thought funds would continue to arrive, adding, “If you want my guess, neither the Americans nor the Israelis want the collapse of the Palestinian Authority.”


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