The Race To Succeed Annan Enters the Final Stretch

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The New York Sun

UNITED NATIONS — South Korea’s foreign minister, Ban Ki-Moon, emerged yesterday as a strong leading candidate to replace Secretary-General Annan at the helm of the United Nations on January 1. But as he failed to secure the support of the whole Security Council, the opportunity remained for a new, surprise candidate to take the race.

While many leading diplomats said Mr. Ban’s strong showing all but sealed the race, American U.N. ambassador John Bolton said that new candidates might soon join the contest, reopening it anew.

“I think there’s still plenty of time for new candidates to come in,” Mr. Bolton told The New York Sun yesterday. “We want to be sure we’ve had the advantage for the full range of possibilities.”

Nevertheless, he suggested that the process has gained momentum and might wrap up quickly.

The biggest question among the race’s handicappers was whether the sole country that voted to “discourage” Mr. Ban’s candidacy in yesterday’s council secret straw poll was one of the five permanent members that have a veto right and can therefore sink a secretary-generalship campaign.

Several diplomats said they believed the opposition did not come from a member of the powerful group known as P-5, in which case Mr. Ban’s front-runner status became almost too formidable to overcome, they said.

“I think we are almost there,” Pakistan’s ambassador, a leading voice at the General Assembly, Munir Akram, told the Sun.

Some Washington powerbrokers, however, might oppose Mr. Ban’s candidacy because of the South Korean minister’s role as leading “pacifier” in the North Korean nuclear crisis, a diplomat who asked for anonymity said yesterday.

Nevertheless, it may be significant that Mr. Ban was to be found in Washington yesterday, as President Roh of South Korea visited President Bush for a session designed to gloss over the policy differences between Seoul and the White House.

Meanwhile, a rising candidate not yet officially entered in the secretary-general race, whose name emerged recently in credible press reports, is a Singaporean diplomat and academic, Chan Heng Chee, who is expected to gain a great deal of support from those advocating that, for the first time, a woman should take the post.

Being of Chinese descent and having served for the last decade as her country’s ambassador in Washington might also help Ms. Chan to gain support from the two most prominent deal-breakers in the race — America and China.

It is not clear however whether Singapore would back Ms. Chan’s candidacy. Singapore, a regional member of a group known as ASEAN, is currently obliged to back the candidacy of Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister, Surakiart Sathirathai, who came in third in yesterday’s poll. While still making him a long shot to succeed Mr. Annan, Mr. Surakiart’s showing was enough to leave him in the race, several diplomats said.

In the poll, each of the 15 council members indicated on a ballot listing the five men the word “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion.”

According to two diplomats who asked for anonymity, a current U.N. undersecretary general, Shashi Tharoor of India, was in second place behind Mr. Ban. Mr. Tharoor received 10 encouragements, three discouragements, and two no opinions. Mr. Surakiart had nine supporters, three detractors, and three noncommittals.

Jordan’s U.N. ambassador, Prince Zeid al-Hussein, who entered the race only last week, surprised many with a weak showing.

Only six members encouraged him, while four discouraged, and five had no opinion. A veteran Sri Lankan U.N. official, Jayantha Dhanapala, closed the list with three supporters, five detractors, and seven who had no opinion.

Mr. Ban’s strong showing in yesterday’s straw poll clearly created a new momentum in the race, with many diplomats saying the decision to crown a new leader for the organization would soon be made.

Next week, foreign ministers and heads of states will visit Turtle Bay for the traditional General Assembly debate. Discussions on the secretary general’s selection are expected to be high on the agenda, several diplomats said.

Mr. Bolton said yesterday’s poll should prompt some candidates to decide on how to proceed. “There might be some additional candidates, we understand, but after next week’s discussions we could take into account what ministers have said and perhaps move fairly rapidly after that,” he said.

The rotating president of the council, Greece’s U.N. ambassador Adamantios Vassilakis, said that, by September 28, the council will conduct another straw poll, which might identify how the five permanent members voted or even move directly to a vote to determine the council’s final recommendation. Traditionally, the General Assembly has affirmed the council’s recommendation.

France’s ambassador to Turtle Bay, Jean Marc de la Sabliere, predicted the decision would be taken “in October.” This would mean an earlier decision than was taken in the vast majority of races to determine a new secretary general, which notably conclude only just before the end of the sitting leader’s term.


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