Record Amounts Being Wagered On Outcome of French Election
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Speculators have made Nicolas Sarkozy the favorite in the French presidential election as British bookmakers take in record wagers on the campaign.
Mr. Sarkozy, the governing-party nominee, is the 2–5 favorite and socialist Segolene Royal is 10–3 to become the nation’s first woman president, London-based William Hill Plc says. A winning $15 bet on Mr. Sarkozy would produce a $10 profit and a similar wager on Ms. Royal would yield $50. Bettors have put down about $339,000 so far at William Hill and Ladbrokes Plc, the two biggest British bookmakers, more than five times the level in the previous election in 2002.
“There is much more cover of the French elections this time,” William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said. “Segolene Royal has brought something to the election that wasn’t there before, like Hillary Clinton does for the U.S.”
Mr. Sarkozy, picking up an endorsement from Britain’s Economist magazine, is gaining momentum heading into the April 22 first round. William Hill’s odds on him narrowed in the past week from 1–2. Odds on Ms. Royal lengthened from 11–4.
At the same time, odds on centrist Francois Bayrou have narrowed to 9–2 from 11–2. Anti-immigrant leader Jean-Marie Le Pen remains the long shot at 50–1, down from 80–1.
Opinion surveys show a tighter race. The daily Ipsos SA/Dell Inc. tracking poll showed Mr. Sarkozy defeating Ms. Royal in the May 6 runoff by 52–48, the narrowest gap since March 21. In the first round, Mr. Sarkozy led with 28.5%, trailed by Ms. Royal’s 25%. Mr. Bayrou had 18.5%, and Mr. Le Pen was at 14%.
The survey of 1,357 respondents on April 13, 14, and 16, has a margin of error of 3 points.
Mr. Sharpe said his shop’s biggest bet was a $6,000 wager on Mr. Sarkozy March 21 when the odds were 11–10.
Bettors at Ladbrokes have put down as much as 150,000 euros, and a single punter — “a London-based businessman with a French-sounding name” — bet £6,000,” spokesman Robin Hutchison said. He said the overall bets in Britain for the French elections could be “anywhere between half-a-million and a million pounds depending on what happens this week.”
