Falling prices, a realignment of the producers’ rankings, and serious geopolitical upheaval mean the world of oil is stirring anew.

It started with a precipitous drop in prices — 30% in three months, to new lows of $60 a barrel from midsummer highs of $77 — which, in any commodity, is the equivalent of a heart attack. It could be that the good life enjoyed by oil producers is coming to an end.

As with all addictions, the first reaction was denial.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said the drop in oil prices was an anomaly quickly remedied with a cut in oil production. The problem is, OPEC is no longer the cartel it once was. It only produces 34% of the world’s daily consumption, which now stands at 84 million barrels.

Other factors are shaking up the once comfy world of oil.

Russia has replaced Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest single oil exporter.

It remains to be seen how an atheist leadership will differ from a fanatical Wahhabi one, but the geopolitical implications are there to be exploited.

Among other things, Mother Russia is looking more like its old Soviet self.

President Putin has been maneuvering for more than two years, with considerable success, to take back control of the oil resources ceded to Russian and international oil companies in the heyday of privatization.

Then, a handful of Russian companies and four international oil giants — ExxonMobil, Shell, British Petroleum, and French Total — took possession of virtually all of Russia’s oil resources. Mr. Putin and his politburo quickly decided that renationalization was a strategic objective to be achieved by hook or by crook.

And that is exactly what took place, starting with Russia’s largest private oil company, Yukos.

A couple of years ago, Yukos went bankrupt after the government selectively enforced certain tax laws, landing it in state hands and its owner in jail.

The Kremlin swallowed a company whose production of nearly 3 million barrels a day rivaled that of Kuwait or the United Arab Emirates.

With the big four multinationals, Mr. Putin is using another weapon: “environmental regulations.”

Suddenly, these foreign companies are finding that they cannot exploit the investments they have made — $60 billion to date — unless, in effect, they give Russia a substantial share of it. Until they do, environmental “obstacles” will block the flow of any oil they have discovered.

As chess moves go, this one is a checkmate, restricting supplies, raising prices, and inevitably allowing the government to regain control of the oil sector.

Can any of that push oil back to $70 a barrel?

Apparently not. New players have emerged in the world of oil and the so-called new fuel that has trickled onto the world scene.

One source of this new fuel is already a household name.

Ethanol made a big splash this year in Brazil, which managed to produce enough of it on its sugar cane plantations to dispense with oil imports altogether. Other big countries will follow suit, which means more trouble is on the horizon for conventional oil.

Another troublemaker is oil sand, which exists in huge quantities in Canada. Oil sands are extracted from viscous oil, tarred rock, and sand through an injection of high-pressure steam. It’s a messy process, but Canada is sitting on a trillion barrels of this new fuel.

Last week, the American oil company ConocoPhillips announced a joint venture with the Canadian oil and gas producer EnCana, combining ownership of two of Conoco’s Texas refineries with EnCana’s Canadian oil sands properties.

It’s a marriage of an American refinery with Canadian oil sands, which translates to new fuel traveling down to America.

Other such ventures will follow because the price is right.

EnCana’s chief financial officer, Brian Ferguson, said the new venture was structured on the assumption that oil prices would average $50 a barrel, about $10 below current prices. The project will be viable even if oil falls to $40 a barrel, he said.

It may be too early to declare victory for greater energy independence, but it is not too soon to say the tide is turning. I predicted it last winter, and I expect it this winter.