UNITED NATIONS – In a major setback for American policy, the next report by the International Atomic Energy Agency will likely lack enough new evidence to convince Europeans to move toward sanctions against Iran, sources say.

In Washington, an undersecretary of state, John Bolton, addressing the Hudson Institute yesterday said that the “time to report this issue to the Security Council,” where sanctions could be imposed on Iran, “is long overdue.”

Failing to do so “would risk sending a signal to would-be proliferators that there are not serious consequences for pursuing secret nuclear weapons programs,” Mr. Bolton added.

America, however, will need to convince European and other members of the Vienna-based IAEA board of governors in their next meeting on September 13. To date, most board members have resisted a move to the council without a definite IAEA conclusion of Iranian violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

“Unless something new pops up between now and then,” a Western diplomat in Vienna told The New York Sun yesterday, the IAEA report in early September will not include anything to “either exonerate Iran completely, or [produce] some kind of smoking gun.” The diplomat estimated the report would not give America what it needs to “convince enough countries that this warrants going to the Security Council.”

The diplomat dismissed as “premature” recent press reports claiming the IAEA has concluded that traces of enriched uranium found in Iran were brought into the country through contaminated equipment bought from Pakistani and other dealers.

The final conclusion will depend on answers from Pakistan and Russia, which have “not always moved as quickly” as the IAEA would like, he said, and at any rate would most likely not be available in the coming report.

Meanwhile, a senior official in the office of Prime Minister Sharon told the Sun yesterday that Israel will for now “rely on international diplomacy” regarding the Iranian nuclear crisis, defusing reports that Jerusalem plans to destroy Iranian nuclear sites.

“Israel would know how to defend itself if assaulted, but it would not initiate an attack,” said the official, who requested anonymity.

He nevertheless confirmed reports on a recent shipment of dozens of longrange rockets from Iran to Lebanon. He said that the conventional rockets, based on a North Korean design and with an approximate range of 124 miles, can hit any spot in Israel. Older, shorter-range rockets, he added, were operated by Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy terrorist organization. The longer- range ones are controlled directly by Iranian Revolutionary Guard operatives, he stressed.

The Kuwaiti daily Al-Siyassa reported that the Syrian military has been recently placed on high alert after the publishing of press reports that Israel intends to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“Assad knows he plays with fire in this unholy triangle of Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria,” the Israeli official told the Sun, referring to the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. Several months ago, Israeli jets struck largely empty training camps deep inside Syrian territory, mostly as display of its prowess.

In South Africa, Defense Minister Patrick Lekota and his Iranian counterpart, Ali Shamkhani, met yesterday to discuss an expansion of mutual cooperation between the two countries, especially in the domain of defense, the Iranian news agency IRNA reported. Israel’s Channel 1 TV reported the two signed a memorandum of understanding on bilateral cooperation, which included an arrangement for South Africa to sell uranium to Iran.

Former undersecretary of defense Frank Gaffney told the Sun that he did not believe the diplomacy employed so far by the Bush administration, or worse, the policies proposed by Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, would be enough. “I don’t think we should kid ourselves that it amounts to very much,” he said.

Mr. Gaffney, who heads the Center for Security Policy, a Washington think tank, has begun a drive for Americans to “stop doing business with companies that do business with Iran,” either through off-shore subsidiaries, or directly with non-American partners.

In his speech yesterday, Mr. Bolton defended the administration’s policy on Iran, which he termed “not nonproliferation,” but “counter-proliferation.”

“We have been using every diplomatic tool at our disposal,” he said, adding that Iran’s fear of being referred to the Security Council proves that the administration is not unilateral. Nevertheless, more could be done, he added.

“The front lines in our nonproliferation strategy must extend beyond the well-known rogue states to the trade routes and entities that are engaged in supplying the countries of greatest proliferation concern,” Mr. Bolton said.