Israel’s Election Could Well Be Different for Bibi

This time it’ll be different. Like the last time. And the time before that. Like it or not, Israel is headed for yet another national election in March 2021, the fourth round in less than two years. Will this time end Benjamin Netanyahu’s reign as the longest serving prime minister in the country’s history?When the Knesset dissolved itself yesterday, Israel marked a dubious record. With governments that have the shortest lifespan among all parliamentary democracies, voters seem to endlessly test the oft-used definition of insanity — doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for different results.As in previous rounds, those who newly hope to get rid of Bibi are banking on a brand new party, this time called New Hope. It is composed mostly of former Netanyahu allies that broke ties with Likud, a political home for their entire careers. New Hope was founded two weeks ago by Gideon Saar, who, in a country increasingly fed up with corruption, is seen as Mr. Clean.Mr. Netanyahu, by contrast, isn’t. He may be the most successful scion of Betar, Israel’s rightist movement known as Revisionist Zionists, but Bibi has strayed from one of its principal elements. Betar’s founding fathers, Vladimir Jabotinsky, Menachem Begin, and YItzhak Shamir were stern men proudly uncorrupted by wealth. Mr. Netanyahu, by contrast, is increasingly accused of using his power to enrich himself, his family, and members of his camarilla.In comes Mr. Saar, a former rising Likud luminary who for a few years was known merely as husband of television star Geula Even. Two years ago Ms. Even, then the lead news anchor at Kan, one of Israel’s top networks, quit her post to avoid conflict when her husband announced a return to politics.Soon Mr. Saar lost a Likud primary challenge to Mr. Netanyahu. That was in the lead up to the March 2020 election. Yet he was seen in national polls as a leading competitor, and now, like other political rising stars before him, he could almost smell the country’s Bibi fatigue.But is it there?“Taxi drivers, always staunch Bibi supporters, now almost universally say they’re sick of him,” a Tel Aviv friend told me recently. The premier’s trial on corruption and bribery charges is scheduled to start February, one month before the planned election, and the events may be connected.The current political crisis was nominally triggered by a national budget dispute. Mr. Netanyahu’s opponents, however, accuse him of deliberately blowing up his partnership with Benny Gantz, who, according to their rotation agreement, was scheduled to replace him as premier in November 2021. To avoid standing trial, or to bury the indictments, opponents say, Mr. Netanyahu must retain the powers invested in him as prime minister.It wasn’t long ago that Mr. Gantz, a former army chief of staff, led the never-Bibi camp. Now his Blue-White party, which won 27% of the votes in the last election, a close second to Likud, is sinking in the polls, and Mr. Gantz is reportedly considering an end to his political career.So why would New Hope do better than Blue-White?For one, it’s a party of well-honed politicians who acquired their skills in Mr. Netanyahu’s shadow. This week’s latest addition to the party is Zeev Elkin, minister of water resources, a shrewd political strategist and for years one of the prime minister’s closest advisers.In a scathing letter to Mr. Netanyahu on Wednesday, Mr. Elkin detailed some of the premier’s greatest achievements, his leadership, and contribution to the country’s decades of success, but also accused him of cultivating a “cult of personality.”The country can no longer “be held hostage to your personal interests,” Mr. Elkin wrote. “Sadly, in the last two years… I feel your personal agenda and the whims of your inner circle take an increasingly central role in making decisions.” And, he wrote, “as someone who has watched this dangerous process up close, I am increasingly worried, and my belief in you and the honesty of your intentions has waned more and more.”Despite all that, Likud is still leading early polls, and analysts say it’d be difficult for any other party to cobble together a coalition of 61 Knesset members and form a government without Mr. Netanyahu. Boasting his latest success, making Israel the per-capita world leader in the number of citizens receiving the Pfizer corona vaccine, Mr. Netanyahu would be tough to beat in March.In 15 years in power, Mr. Natayahu, by far, is the most consequential leader in the country’s modern history. It’s hard now to see how any competitor could overcome his political survival skills. But nobody is irreplaceable. And this time could be different, as voters conclude Mr. Netanyahu has overstated his welcome.Twitter @bennyavni.

Israel’s Election Could Well Be Different for Bibi

Israel’s Election Could Well Be Different for Bibi

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