Upcoming Mideast Talks Will Be a Futile Exercise

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The New York Sun

Q: What should Secretary-General Ban expect to achieve when he goes to Washington on Friday for a meeting of the Middle East steering group known as the quartet?

A: Nothing.

Mr. Ban will meet with the foreign ministers of Russia and the European Union and Secretary of State Rice on Friday, after which Ms. Rice will travel to the region to meet with President Abbas of the Palestinian Authority and Prime Minister Olmert of Israel. Since no one is ready, this is a futile exercise.

Israel is going through one of the worst leadership crises in its history. The Palestinian Arabs are in the midst of a civil war. America has a lot of other Middle Eastern issues on its plate. And Russia and the Europeans are minor players.

Mr. Ban — who last week mistakenly referred to the two communities in Cyprus as “countries” and erred by saying both have rejected a U.N. plan, which the Turks actually accepted — is not deeply briefed on the Middle East either. He also does not yet have a political team in place. Britain is urging him to promote a U.N. political department official, Michael Williams, to a top Middle East coordination role, in which he would presumably work in concert with a Washington-backed veteran Middle East hand, Norway’s Terje Roed Larsen.

With Mr. Ban’s penchant for secrecy, though, it is unknown whether these appointments will come through. A top aide to the secretary-general told me recently that Mr. Roed Larsen would join Mr. Ban’s entourage this Friday on the Washington trip. However, I am also told that Mr. Roed Larsen is yet to be informed of this.

The trip is mostly ceremonial. Ms. Rice hopes to silence critics who say she has failed to reignite a perennial ritual known as the “Israeli-Palestinian peace process.” No matter how nonexistent, some see this “process” as the key to establishing calm in the region.

“Poppycock,” a senior Israeli official told me recently, explaining Jerusalem’s strategic thinking on condition of anonymity. The overriding concern for Israel as well as most Sunni Arab leaders is “Iran’s drive, even beyond the nuclear issue, for regional hegemony,” the official said.

Tehran’s footprints are clearly seen in hotspots like Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Arab territories, where Iran’s proxies instigate internal wars that raise mortal fears in Riyadh, Amman, and Cairo. “Even if we solved the Israeli-Palestinian dispute tomorrow, these Arab leaders would still fear Iran,” the Israeli official said.

On Friday, the General Assembly approved an American-drafted resolution against Holocaust denial. After failing to marshal any Arab opposition by Arabs or Muslims to thwart the resolution, Iran “disassociated” itself, arguing that Israel uses the issue to continue its “crimes” and “genocide” against the Palestinian Arabs.

While the American success to isolate Iran was remarkable, the scarcely attended Friday session was far from a turning point at Turtle Bay. When in doubt, the easiest and fastest way to excite and unite the 192 members of the United Nations is still to condemn Israel.

A South Korean diplomat told me recently that, early on, when Seoul was involved in global competition with Pyongyang, it courted Arab countries at the expense of ties with Israel. But once the catatonic nature of the communist hermit tyranny became clear, South Koreans discovered the advantage of relations with Israel, and now, they have extensive commercial ties there. That game also exists at Turtle Bay. While Israel-bashing is popular, it also is one of the most important irritants in U.N. relations with Washington. Constantly singling them out for rebuke, Turtle Bay also is distrusted by Israelis. According to polls, of all countries in the world, the United Nations gets its lowest approval ratings in Israel.

Some aides to Mr. Ban will tell him that the quartet needs to assume more that a ceremonial role. They will whisper in his ear that one way that he can jump head-on into world diplomacy is to restart that fabled “Middle East peace process.”

He shouldn’t buy it.


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