Use Iran To Force Putin’s Hand

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Now is the time to put the Russo-Farsi alliance to the test.

No, America should not give Russia Georgia or Ukraine, or any other foothold it seeks in its “near abroad,” in return for Moscow’s cooperation in stopping Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Such a bargain would be “too cynical for me,” the Russian ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin — no stranger to cynicism — told me. And Secretary of State Rice has argued that Russia is already cooperating with America on Iran. The Kremlin has its own interest in stopping Iran, she said. It is not working with Washington as “a favor to the United States.”

But when President Medvedev invited President al-Assad of Syria to the Russian resort city of Sochi last week, one intended message to the West was that Russia can wreak international havoc on America if it resists in Georgia. When Russia threatens to deploy missiles in Cuba, it goes without saying that close cooperation with Fidel Castro’s powerful and influential ally, President Chavez of Venezuela, could follow. And close ties with Syria could lead to stronger ties with Damascus’s sugar daddy, Iran.

Mr. Medvedev will have a lot to discuss with President Ahmadinejad when they meet later this week in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on the sidelines of a regional cooperation group that includes China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, as well as observers such as Iran. Yesterday, Iran dangled a fat new nuclear contract for Prime Minister Putin’s comrades once Russia finishes building the nuclear plant in the southern Iranian city of Bushehr. Additionally, Russia has proposed building a pipeline to Syria from Iran via Iraq, which could increase Tehran’s influence over Baghdad.

The Iranian mullahs, however, “put little stock in Moscow’s friendship” and are warning their constituents that Russia will only act in its own interest, Israel Radio’s Farsi-language broadcaster, Menashe Amir, said yesterday. Iran’s relationship with Russia largely depends on America’s response to the Georgia crisis, which has been “disappointing so far,” he said.

In his visit to Russia last week, Mr. Assad voiced his enthusiastic support for his hosts’ actions in Georgia, using his stay to present an updated shopping list of military hardware that, if Russia agrees to sell it, could have a significant impact on the regional military balance. After protests from Israel, the State Department over the weekend expressed concern and urged Russia not to sell Syria the weapons. According to Arab and Israeli press reports, America also quietly urged Israel to end its diplomatic negotiations with Syria in the aftermath of Mr. Assad’s visit to Sochi.

Reports of an agreement to deploy Russian-made Iskander surface-to-surface missiles in Syria, though denied in Moscow and Damascus, gave new meaning to the Kremlin’s declaration last week that its response to the deployment of American missiles on Polish soil would be beyond diplomacy. Flush with new oil revenues, Russia is more confident than ever in its ability to emerge as a major world power — as it once was and feels it deserves to be again.

Regrettably for Russia, its economy produces little beyond arms and oil. Its stock market has dipped by 25% since the launch of the Georgia war on August 8, largely because of foreign investors’ flight. Some of Mr. Putin’s most important financiers have suffered heavy losses. Their attempts to end Moscow’s mad exercise in Cold War nostalgia could be much more effective than anything the West may do on Georgia. But that doesn’t mean Washington should just wait until oil prices fall again, or until Western financial alienation finally makes an impression on Moscow’s decision makers.

Washington should dramatically escalate its confrontation with Russia by sending additional troops and military gear to aid Georgia. It should quickly deploy the anti-missile system in Poland, create new regional organizations for the countries of New Europe, and officially drop Russia from the Group of Eight industrialized nations. America should also immediately begin preparing a new U.N. Security Council resolution to sanction Iran for its blatant violations of resolutions demanding the suspension of uranium enrichment. It should make this resolution tough and refuse any attempts to water it down.

Challenging Iran now will give Russia the opportunity to climb down from the confrontational tree it has climbed. Let Mr. Churkin prove that, far from being “cynical,” the Kremlin can be a responsible player on the world stage. Let Mr. Putin signal to his foreign investors that he can cooperate with the West. Conversely, a Russian veto of a resolution on Iran will free the hands of the next American president — or even force him — to tackle the Russo-Farsi alliance with tools that go beyond the Security Council.

bavni@nysun.com


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