Good News on Jobs Front, With More Jobs and Wage Increases
Let us cheer that more Americans are working, but we still have a big inflation problem.
Some good news today, in two parts. First, more Americans are working. That is unambiguously good. Corporate payrolls are up 471,000 in July, with a 5.2 percent year-to-year wage increase, 6.2 percent if youâre a blue collar worker.
The unemployment rate is down to 3.5 percent. The small-business oriented household survey not quite as strong â itâs up 179,000. So in the first half, the economy was negative in recession. Weâll see about the third quarter after the good jobs report.
Weâve still got a big inflation problem, although market price indicators have tailed down. The Federal Reserve has more work to do to drain its balance sheet and bring its Fed funds target rate above the inflation rate.
I donât know where that will land, but 2.5 percent is still way too low. My guess is base core inflation is probably between 5 percent and 6 percent. Let us cheer that more Americans working.
And, by the way, if we had decent supply-side economic policies, with lower tax rates and deregulation, we would have nothing to fear from wage increases of between 5 percent and 6 percent. But we have a heavily overregulated economy and plenty of threats, with more coming.
Think of the right policy as tax cuts and king dollar. The former generates growth incentives, the latter holds down prices. Thatâs the optimal policy mix.
Second piece of good news: Capital expenditure investment is being carved out of the Manchin-Schumer monstrosity. Courtesy of Senator Kyrsten Sinema, probably the worst part of this dumb bill has been removed.
Taxable profits will replace minimum corporate book profits, at least as far as 100 percent expensing of plant equipment and technology is concerned.
There is no legislative text yet. So we donât know everything that weâre going to need to know about this deal, but the kill shot to business investment has been removed, as far as I can tell.
So, hats off to Senator Sinema. Iâm sure she watches our show nightly, taking notes constantly, as she removed the most economically damaging part of this goofy bill.
Also, the carried interest provision, which taxes private equity funds on a capital gains basis with a three year holding period has also been removed.
That still leaves the IRS DC swamp rat provision to attack small businesses and conservative groups. Also remaining are drug price controls that â by the way â the Congressional Budget Office is actually scoring as a price hike, not a cost reduction.
Plus, the war against fossil fuels â weâll call it $430 billion worth â is giving the Environmental Protection Agency new power to regulate greenhouse gasses and Lord knows what else.
Then we have the social spending that includes new Obamacare subsidies. That will cost about $250 billion, on top of the $430 billion fossil fuel war, plus the $285 billion CHIPS+ bill.
So, if you add it up, itâs close to a trillion dollars of spending. It will not be paid for. It may well boost inflation. There are assorted tax-hike cats and dogs left in this little piece of left-wing, woke utopia that we donât really know much about.
Like I say, itâs a dumb, goofy bill. America doesnât need it. Only the far left wants it. It will not help the economy. It will not reduce inflation. It will create a lot more deficits and debt. And, if you hadnât already guessed, itâs not my cup of tea.
At least thereâs no investment tax on small businesses. At least thereâs no confiscatory wealth tax. At least the capex expensing will remain a tax-free deductible. So, in the last moments of left-wing progressive woke rule in Washington, I guess I can say it couldâve been worse. I know the wokesters wanted it much worse.
Yet you know folks, this is a pathetic bill. And itâs a pathetic agenda. And itâs a pathetic Democratic Party.
Nothing to beat inflation. Nothing to grow the economy. Nothing to close the border. Nothing to solve the crime wave. Their agenda is nothing. Pathetic.
But I also know the cavalry is coming. And it would be great if we could save America and kill the rest of this bill.
From Mr. Kudlowâs broadcast on Fox Business News.