In New York’s 17th congressional district, redistricting could help a freshman Republican state assemblyman, Michael Lawler, unseat a top U.S. House Democrat, Sean Patrick Maloney.

The Cook Political Report just adjusted its assessment of Mr. Maloney’s chances of retaining the seat, calling the race a toss-up after giving Mr. Maloney an advantage up to this point.

The editor for House races at the forecasting agency, Dave Wasserman, writes that Mr. Maloney “finds himself in deep danger” as he attempts to balance his re-election effort with his duties as head of a national political action committee.

Mr. Maloney is chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, one of the top groups that support House candidates, putting him in a lead strategic role for the party’s efforts to retain control of the House.

If Mr. Maloney were to lose, it would be the first time in decades that a sitting chairman of either the DCCC or the National Republican Congressional Committee has lost a re-election bid.

In a conversation with Punchbowl News, the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, characterized the Republican focus on ousting Mr. Maloney as an attempt “to fell a mighty oak.”

What little polling has been done in the district has been conducted by Republican pollsters associated with Mr. Lawler’s campaign, and has given the Republican an advantage in the race.

Most recently, a poll released by Mr. Lawler’s campaign and conducted by McLaughlin and Associates found Mr. Lawler leading Mr. Maloney by six points, 52 percent to 46 percent.

Mr. Maloney has admitted that the poll numbers have him worried, though he also says it’s a situation he’s grown accustomed to in his district.

“Look, I’m a gay guy with an interracial family in a Trump district; I didn’t win this seat five times by not worrying about it,” Mr. Maloney told the Times Union.

Part of the problem for Mr. Maloney is that the 17th district’s partisan lean was changed in favor of Republicans during redistricting this year.

According to FiveThirtyEight, after redistricting the Democrats had a seven-point advantage, down from what was a 17-point advantage.

Mr. Maloney had represented the 18th district until redistricting redrew the map, putting his Cold Spring home in the 17th district and pitting him against Representative Mondaire Jones, who opted to avoid a primary against Mr. Maloney and instead ran in the new 10th district.

Although the new district is untested, suburban Hudson Valley has been historically competitive. This year, Democrats scored a surprise win in the 19th, just north of Mr. Maloney’s district.

A former Republican representative for New York’s 19th district, John Faso, tells the Sun that he thinks Mr. Lawler has a clear — though not guaranteed — path to victory.

“Issues are inflation, crime, and the direction of the nation,” he tells the Sun. “They may not know the details, but they know [President] Biden and Maloney are making their heating and electric bills go up.”

While Mr. Lawler’s campaign has focused on tying Mr. Maloney to Mr. Biden and other top Democrats, Mr. Maloney has attempted to paint his opponent as an extremist, fashioning him as “MAGA Mike.”

His campaign has also tried to tie Mr. Lawler to an antisemitic video published by the Rockland County Republican Party in 2019 that accused some members of the chasidic community there of “plotting a takeover,” among other things. 

In terms of finance, Mr. Lawler’s campaign has raised $931,000 and has spent about $641,000 according to the latest Federal Elections Commission filings. Mr. Maloney’s campaign has raised about $4.8 million and spent almost all of it.

Throughout the election season, national Republicans have prioritized the race more than Democrats, with the Congressional Leadership Fund and the NRCC having spent about $8 million collectively on the contest.

Until Monday, national Democrats had spent about $140,000 on ads in the district. Punchbowl News’s John Bresnahan reports that the DCCC is planning to spend an additional $600,000 in the district, with ads starting Tuesday.