GOP Loses Its Best Chance To Unseat Senator Warren

Has the GOP just lost its best shot to unseat Senator Warren in 2024? That’s the question after the news today that the Bay State’s popular outgoing governor, Charles “Charlie” Baker, is taking a job as president of the National Collegiate Athletic Association.Mr. Baker’s dodge apparently benches the strongest possible Republican challenger to Ms. Warren, a hero of the left who is reportedly “adamant” and “very excited” about running for re-election in 2024 — but has weaknesses that the right GOP candidate could exploit.That, at least, is the view of a scholar of the founders, Ira Stoll, who has suggested that the GOP’s disappointing midterms are a sign of voter fatigue with the far left in the midterms. Republicans, Mr. Stoll contends, could exploit this dissatisfaction by targeting candidates like Ms. Warren. Yet instead of rising to that challenge, Mr. Baker has opted — at least for now — to quit politics.As president of NCAA, he says he’s looking forward to a “big and complicated” challenge. Not to mention a gargantuan salary — many times what he might earn as a servant of the people. The current NCAA president, Mark Emmert, receives an annual salary of nearly $3 million. Mr. Baker has consistently been rated the most popular governor in the country. He leaves office with a 68 percent approval rating, a University of Massachusetts poll found. About half of Bay State voters view Ms. Warren favorably, but her unfavorable ratings are much higher than the soon to be former governor’s. Mr. Baker’s strength with voters who traditionally vote Democratic could be a real boon for the GOP were he to run. Nearly 70 percent of minorities in Massachusetts approve of his governorship, and he has an 80 percent approval among those who voted for President Biden. Some 55 percent of voters under the age of 29 view him favorably. In short, Ms. Warren would face a serious challenge from Mr. Baker, given her relatively low approval rating in a state President Biden won by more than 30 points. She came in third in the Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary in 2020, behind Mr. Biden and Senator Sanders. There could be headwinds for Mr. Baker, though. The presidential election in 2024 would drive Democratic turnout. Yet there is history of a Republican senate candidate outrunning the presidential ticket in Massachusetts. In 1996, Governor Weld — another popular, two-term Republican — challenged Senator Kerry, a well-known quantity on the left, just like Ms. Warren. In the presidential balloting that year, Senator Dole won only 28 percent of the statewide vote in Massachusetts. On the same ballot line, Mr. Weld’s senate campaign received 45 percent — less than eight points behind Mr. Kerry. In 2024, Mr. Baker appears likely to be the Republicans’ best chance at outrunning a national ticket in his home state. Senator McConnell famously said that “candidate quality matters,” referring to the right-wing political neophytes who his party nominated in senate races across the country at the behest of President Trump. Political analysts have suggested that Senators Hassan, Kelly, Cortez-Masto, and Senator-elect Fetterman would have lost to more credible candidates. One problem for Mr. Baker as a would-be candidate is the Massachusetts Republican Party’s shift to the right. Among all voting demographics in the state, his lowest approval comes from his own party members — split 52 favorable, 48 unfavorable. In 2018, during his reelection campaign, he received only 70 percent of the Republican primary vote, relatively low for the most popular governor in the country at the time. He would go on to win every county in Massachusetts and come within 3,000 votes of winning Boston, long a Democratic stronghold.The Democrats’ showing in the recent midterms, especially in the Senate, “falls far short of a triumph,” Mr. Stoll notes in the Sun. He points to Mr. Schumer’s weaker than expected reelection results — he won with 55 percent of the vote — as a reason for Republicans to focus on Ms. Warren’s seat in 2024. “Republicans nationally can look at Mr. Schumer’s decline and start working now to find and fund candidates capable of toppling Ms. Warren,” Mr. Stoll writes, adding that, “even if they seem like long-shot battles, they are worth engaging.”Even so, Mr. Baker’s decision to take the NCAA job could simply reflect a lack of interest in a Senate run. After Senator Kennedy died in 2009, Mr. Baker was pressed to run for the open seat, yet opted instead to run for governor — a race he would go on to lose in 2010 before winning in 2014.

GOP Loses Its Best Chance To Unseat Senator Warren

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