Haley Voters Break for Trump, Despite Biden’s Best Efforts: Poll

Despite a concerted push from the Biden campaign, the plurality of voters who support Haley prefer Trump over the incumbent president.

AP/Charlie Neibergall, file
Governor Haley on December 18, 2023, at Nevada, Iowa. AP/Charlie Neibergall, file

A new survey is shining some light on which candidate voters who supported Ambassador Nikki Haley in the GOP primary are planning to support in the general election, as the campaigns of both President Trump and President Biden make a play for these voters.

A new survey conducted by the Liberal Patriot and YouGov contacted about 4,000 voters online to gather information about the 2024 election. Unlike other surveys, the poll was specifically designed to collect data about voters who supported Ms. Haley.

In total, the poll contacted 160 voters who supported Ms. Haley and found that 38 percent of them planned to support Mr. Trump, while 19 percent planned to back Mr. Biden. Another 18 percent said they would support another candidate, 2 percent said they wouldn’t vote, and 24 percent said that they’re not sure who they would vote for.

“Although President Biden is performing solidly with Haley voters as a Democratic incumbent, he clearly has a long way to go to win over more of these potential swing voters,” the Liberal Patriot’s John Haplin writes of the poll.

When boiled down to a head-to-head matchup between Messrs. Trump and Biden, the survey found that, among voters who initially chose not to support either major candidate, 29 percent would support Mr. Biden while 62 percent would support Mr. Trump if they were forced to pick a candidate.

When attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was mentioned by name, the survey also found that he would garner significant support among supporters of Ms. Haley.

In a three-way matchup, Mr. Trump would enjoy the support of 31 percent of Ms. Haley’s voters, while Mr. Kennedy would have the backing of 24 percent. Mr. Biden would have the support of 12 percent of those voters.

While the sample size of Ms. Haley’s voters is relatively small, and thus its results should be taken with a grain of salt, the data suggest that the Biden campaign’s play for Ms. Haley’s supporters may be unlikely to succeed.

Mr. Biden’s campaign has dedicated significant resources to winning over those voters, including efforts like a $30 million ad campaign directly appealing to the 150,000 or so supporters of Ms. Haley in Pennsylvania. “If you voted for Nikki Haley, Donald Trump doesn’t want your vote,” one ad said. “Save America. Join us.”

When Ms. Haley dropped out of the GOP primary, Mr. Biden also said in a statement that “Donald Trump made it clear he doesn’t want Nikki Haley’s supporters. I want to be clear: There is a place for them in my campaign.”

If the survey data is representative of the broader population of supporters of Ms. Haley, it would mean that the Biden campaign is fighting an uphill battle to win over these voters. This comes as Mr. Biden also is suffering with some core Democratic constituencies.

Mr. Biden enjoyed the support of 59 percent of Hispanic voters in 2020, compared to Mr. Trump’s 38 percent support, according to a Pew Research analysis. The YouGov survey, though, suggests that Mr. Biden is only winning over the plurality, or 45 percent, of Latino men compared to Mr. Trump’s 40 percent support among the demographic. Among non-college-educated Latino voters, Mr. Trump was essentially tied, with 42 percent support to Mr. Biden’s 41 percent support.

In the broader national horse race, the survey found that Messrs. Biden and Trump were tied at 44 percent support each when “other” and “not sure” were options.

When voters who initially said they would not vote for either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump were forced to choose, they broke for Mr. Biden, 54 percent to 40 percent, with another 6 percent saying they were still not sure.

Alongside attempting to collect data on Ms. Haley’s supporters, the survey focused on voters who intend to support Mr. Kennedy. The survey found that Mr. Kennedy’s supporters were, if forced to choose between Messrs. Biden and Trump, more likely to prefer Mr. Trump, 52 percent to 43 percent.

The New York Sun

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