Can Speaker Johnson Win a Budget Framework Today and Calm the Markets?

Speaker Johnson will face the Herculean task on Wednesday of trying to get the Trump-backed budget framework through the House despite objections from dozens of deficit hawks in his own conference. With Secretary Bessent on the Hill trying to manage fears about tariffs, the speaker is hoping the president could help him get the budget over the finish line to assure the markets that tax cuts are coming. The House barely passed their own budget framework bill in February, leading the Senate to adopt their own watered-down resolution this past week. The Senate bill guarantees a minimum of $4 billion in spending cuts — equivalent to about one day of borrowing by the federal government — which led many House Republicans to balk at the result. President Trump has been demanding the House get behind the Senate resolution so that lawmakers can put pen to paper and start getting specific. After meeting with the president and some of his apprehensive colleagues at the White House on Tuesday, Mr. Johnson told the Sun that he believes the president is changing minds with one-on-one conversations. “I think he did,” the speaker told the Sun after being asked if the president was able to flip any votes. “We’ll have some more discussions this afternoon. … I think we’ll be moving forward this week.”Within the next hour, several Republican House members announced that they had changed their minds and agreed to support the bill after meeting with the president. Congressman Byron Donalds, Congressman Greg Steube, Congressman Ron Estes all announced they would support the budget resolution when it comes up for a vote, though the speaker is likely farther from success than it may appear. Another deficit hawk who was not invited to the White House meeting with the president, Congressman Rich McCormick, told the Sun on Tuesday that he believes there could be as many as 40 no votes on the Republican side of the aisle. He says he needs real assurances that they will move toward a balanced budget now, given the fact that many lawmakers will be wary to make drastic spending cuts next year due to the midterm elections. “You gotta start with something bold because, quite frankly, in most midterms, you lose 20 seats. So, it’s not done in the next two years, when is it going to be done? It’s not,” Mr. McCormick said Tuesday. “People will be more timid next year than this year because it’ll be an election year, so this is the time. This is it.”The president’s team has yet to reach out to a number of lawmakers who have said they will not vote for the current resolution without guarantees that the Senate will go far beyond their minimum mandated cuts. Congressman Tim Burchett, Congressman Ralph Norman, Congressman Warren Davidson, and Mr. McCormick all told the Sun on Tuesday that they have not received a call from the administration. “Every time he calls, I’ll listen,” Mr. Norman said as he was leaving the Capitol Tuesday. “I need to see some numbers. … The bridge is just too far apart right now.”This budget framework failing on the House floor could have serious consequences for the stock market. Tuesday marked the fourth straight day of losses for the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, and if the resolution — which is the vehicle for Mr. Trump’s new tax cuts — fails this week, then it could spook investors even more. As of Tuesday night, all three major indices’ futures were down, implying a loss of about one percent at the open for all three on Wednesday morning. Mr. Bessent himself will be on the Hill on Wednesday, hoping to calm congressional nerves about tariffs roiling the markets over the last week. According to Politico, he plans to meet with members of the Republican Study Committee to walk them through the administration’s plans, including negotiations with specific countries.

Can Speaker Johnson Win a Budget Framework Today and Calm the Markets?

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