In Brazil’s Battle of Two Presidents, Bolsonaro Forces a Runoff and Wins Big Gains in Congress

President Jair Bolsonaro, having denied President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a majority in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, has at least a chance of prevailing in a run-off at the end of the month, and has already won an upper hand in the Congress. Mr. da Silva, who was in office as president between 2003 and 2010, led the results of the voting Sunday with 48 percent. Mr. Bolsonaro received 43.5 percent, finishing with a tighter outcome than the polls predicted. The runoff is shaping up as a historic contest.The key question now concerns candidates Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes, who together received more than seven percent of the votes. Their support could turn the elections around for Mr.Bolsonaro, or strengthen Mr. da Silva’s campaign even more.Apart from the presidency, the election results also put the leftist candidate on the back foot, as Mr. Bolsonaro’s party swept the Congress. It did so at a time when the legislature has gained more influence on the executive branch over the past decades.Ms. Tebet, a former senator who considers herself a “centrist,” is the candidate for the Brazilian Democratic Movement. She has voiced her commitment to imposing a liberal economic agenda, labor and social security reform, and a ceiling on public spending. The senator received more than four percent of the votes. After the election results were announced, she said she has already established whom she is going to support in the second round. She says she will announce it “when the time is right.” Mr. Gomes, a former governor and candidate for the Democratic Labor Party, received three percent of the votes. This is his fourth presidential campaign, and he has presented himself as a center-left alternative to Mr. da Silva. After the election results were announced, he said he was “deeply worried for the country,” and asked the press for “some hours” to determine his position for the second round. A professor of international relations at the Federal University of Santa Catarina, Clarissa Franzoi Dri, told the Sun that she believes Ms. Tebet votes will go for Mr. Bolsonaro, and that Mr. Gomes’ to Mr. da Silva.A professor of international relations at the Federal University of San Pablo, Regiane Nitsch Bressan, told the Sun that she believes that Mr. Gomes is a politician who is “at the end of his political career,” and therefore might decide to remain neutral. While the two candidates have yet to announce their positions, the Congressional results are another variant that must be taken into account. In this election, Brazilians selected 27 out of 81 senators and all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies. Mr. Bolsonaro’s Liberal party won 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while Mr. Lula’s Brazil of Hope won 80. Mr. Bolsonaro’s results were the highest for one party since 1998. For the senate, Mr. Bolsonaro has 13 seats, as opposed to Mr. da Silva’s seven. “This proves that Mr. Bolsonaro has a lot of support,” Ms. Nitsch Bressan told the Sun. “Based on Congress’ results, I think Bolsonaro has a chance of winning.”The sway of Brazil’s Congress has grown throughout the past two decades, as it impeached a former president, Dilma Rousseff, and has blocked big parts of Mr. Bolsonaro’s agenda. If Mr. da Silva wins, Ms. Franzoi Dri says, he will have a harder time than expected dealing with Congress.A political risk analyst, Thiago de Aragao, sees this election as based to an unusual degree on “voter dislikes and rejects” rather than on whom“the voter appreciates or endorses.” Ms. Nitsch Bressan sees an “anti-Bolsonaro wave” and an “anti-Lula wave.”“I believe that the elections will be defined by whom the people do not want more,” Ms. Nitsch Bressan says. “And I believe that there are a lot of people who will not vote in the runoffs.”

In Brazil’s Battle of Two Presidents, Bolsonaro Forces a Runoff and Wins Big Gains in Congress

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