In Simmering War Between Putin and His Mercenaries, Yanks Can Root for Both Sides To Lose — and Pass the Popcorn

There are opportunities for America in the 1917-like struggle between President Putin and his former “chef,” Yevgeny Prigozhin, but for now the best Washington can do is sit down with a bucket of popcorn, watch Moscow, and hope both sides lose. Mr. Prigozhin says his mercenary army, known as the Wagner group, has for now turned back from its advance on Moscow. Yet, his first stab at Mr. Putin has undermined the authority of the man who has ruled Moscow since 2012.“Too bad both sides can’t lose” was an observation attributed to Henry Kissinger in the context of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war. Israel’s prime minister, Menachem Begin, had a similar, more rosy version: “I wish both sides great success.” Like then, there is at the moment no percentage in rooting for either side in the current internal Russian fray. Washington, as is its wont of late, seems to have been caught flat-footed when events began to unfold in Russia on Friday. “People know how to count planes and tanks in Russia, but not what is really going on in Russia,” an Eastern Bloc watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Ivana Strander, says. Like Tsar Nicholas II, Mr. Putin had a hold on power that suddenly turned perilous. The comparison to the October 1917 revolution that ended the centuries-old Romanov Dynasty and brought to power the Bolsheviks was quickly seized on by Mr. Putin himself.In an early Saturday morning televised address to the nation, the once invincible Kremlin strong man called Mr. Prigozhin’s rapid military advances “a stab in the back of our country and our people.” It is just like, he said, “in 1917, when the country was in World War I, but its victory was stolen.” Back then, Mr. Putin added, “Russians were killing Russians,” and “the beneficiaries were various political chevaliers of fortune and foreign powers who divided the country, and tore it into parts.” It’s not hard to imagine that the “foreign powers” in the current situation could be America.For now, Ms. Strander says Washington’s best course is to observe events without interfering on behalf of either side. Yet, even if Mr. Putin seems to stop the bleeding, America can start to peel off Russian friends in the region, as well as in the Mideast, Africa, and Latin America, alerting them that Moscow is a weak and untrustworthy ally. Some of the Kremlin’s closest allies seem already to be hedging their bets and, worse from Mr. Putin’s point of view, beginning to snub him. Mr. Putin is calling chits on members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Moscow’s answer to NATO. Yet, some leaders are non-responsive.The local press in Kazakhstan, a CSTO member, is reporting that President Tokayev declined to take a call from Mr. Putin on Saturday, arguing that events in Russia are an internal affair. Meanwhile, the private plane of one of the Russian president’s most ardent supporters, President Lukashenko of Belarus, has landed in Turkey, where his office claims he negotiated a temporary Russian truce between Mr. Prigozhin and Mr. Putin. As Prime Minister Modi of India basks in Washington’s accolades, perhaps he can be convinced to end his reliance on Russian oil and New Delhi’s purchase of Russian arms. Similarly, President Erdogan, a rare leader who did take Mr. Putin’s call Saturday, should be reminded that he is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty.Others, including the hard left leaders in Latin American and Middle East states like Saudi Arabia, need to hear from the State Department as well. Iran, Syria, Cuba, and others of that ilk may be slower to be skeptical of Mr. Putin. Yet even they are watching to see whether he can remain in power. What turned the tide in 1917 was major defections to the Bolshevik side from the ranks of the Tsarist white army. Some simply refused to shoot at Trotsky’s forces. Similarly, Mr. Prigozhin now claims — and there is quite a lot of supportive evidence — that his Wagner mercenaries have taken over the army base at Rostov without firing a shot. On the one hand, as in 1917 after Tsar Nicholas II got bogged down on the losing side of World War I, soldiers and their generals now have little motivation to defend a ruler who has sent them to die in the Ukraine front lines. Mr. Prigozhin, on the other hand, commands a comparatively small group of largely ill-disciplined and ruthless mercenaries, including recently-freed criminals. His avowed enemy, the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, commands vastly superior military power armed with modern fighter planes. That fact may have convinced him to halt the coup. Even as Mr. Putin seems to have temporarily tamed the Wagner group, Kyiv’s days-old counter offensive can stand to gain from the turmoil. Many Russian troops in eastern Ukraine and Crimea could well be diverted to the home front. The ones left behind aren’t likely to fight hard until the fog clears at home. In the event, President Biden can declare vindication for his Ukraine strategy. Yet, the better course would be to stay out of Russia’s internal struggle — and launch a worldwide campaign to convince admirers of tyrants to bet on America instead.

In Simmering War Between Putin and His Mercenaries, Yanks Can Root for Both Sides To Lose — and Pass the Popcorn

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