Some of America’s most well-known conservative political commentators are starting to sound alarm bells about an increasingly competitive race in a special Tennessee congressional election scheduled for next week. It’s a race that should be drawing little attention because President Trump won the district by more than 20 points last year, but the conservative commentariat seem concerned that Democrats could actually pull out a win. 

The U.S. House seat in Tennessee’s seventh congressional district became vacant over the summer after Congressman Mark Greene resigned to pursue opportunities in the private sector. At the time, there was little hope that Democrats could be competitive in the deep-red district encompassing the suburbs and rural areas west of Nashville. Yet the party roundly defeated last year has found new life. 

Democratic state representative Aftyn Behn has raised more than $1 million for her campaign, and outside groups supporting her have poured millions more into the district to support her and bash her Republican opponent, Matt Van Epps. More than $4 million has been spent on the race so far, and national figures like Mr. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, who traveled to Nashville to support Ms. Behn last week, have both weighed in on what should have been an easy win for the GOP. 

Beyond the money being spent, one of the surest signs that the GOP is starting to get nervous is that many conservative commentators who call Tennessee home are starting to weigh in on the race. 

The founder of Outkick, Clay Travis, who in recent years has amassed a monumental following among conservatives, has been posting about the race nearly non-stop in recent days. Mr. Travis lives in the seventh district, and has taken to calling the Democratic nominee, “crazy Aftyn Behn.” 

“Vote ⁦@MattForTN⁩ today. I did it. All of you in the district need to vote. They are counting on low turnout,” Mr. Travis wrote on X to his followers on Monday. 

In the last 24 hours, Mr. Travis has posted about Ms. Behn five times. “This Democrat nominee for Congress is bats–t insane,” Mr. Travis wrote in another post over a video of Ms. Behn being dragged from Governor Bill Lee’s office in 2019 during a protest. 

He shared another video of Ms. Behn saying that there are “men and women who can give birth.”

“Vote @MattForTN if you have a functional brain,” Mr. Travis wrote. 

The Daily Wire’s Matt Walsh, who also lives in Tennessee, has shared multiple videos of Ms. Behn in recent days. One video was of Ms. Behn dodging questions about previous calls to defund the police. Another showed her stating that she was inspired to run for office to defend transgender people in the state after the Covenant school shooting, which was perpetrated by a transgender person. 

In that video, Ms. Behn specifically called out Mr. Walsh and the Daily Wire, saying she would “fight” them at every turn.

The president of Club for Growth, David McIntosh, shared an ad commissioned by his organization of Ms. Behn on Tuesday morning. The ad features audio of Ms. Behn saying she “hates” Nashville. The ad also highlights Ms. Harris’s recent trip to the state to support the Democratic nominee. 

“She loves Kamala Harris,” the ad states. “That’s why Kamala came to Tennessee.”

The only public polling of the race so far has been conducted by Ms. Behn’s own campaign, showing her trailing Mr. Van Epps by single-digits. 

Historically, Democrats have always overperformed in special elections, even during President Biden’s tenure. Mr. Trump being back in the White House seems to have only strengthened the Democratic resolve to get out and vote among those highly educated, wealthy voters who have fled the GOP in the last decade. 

Earlier this year, two special congressional elections in Florida saw both deep-red districts swing 15 points to the left. Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, who was previously Mr. Trump’s choice for U.N. ambassador, had her nomination pulled after those Florida elections due to fears that Democrats could pick up her New York seat in a special election. Ms. Stefanik won her last race by 24 points. 

Now that Mr. Trump is even less popular than he was during those Florida elections back in April, Democrats believe they have a real chance of winning Tennessee’s seventh district next week. Two outside Democratic groups charged with electing House Democrats have spent nearly $2 million on Ms. Behn’s race ahead of the election — the clearest sign yet that the opposition party can pull off an improbable win.