There is a familiar, if slightly shopworn, witticism that doing the same thing twice and expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity. By that logic nominating Donald Trump as the GOP presidential candidate in 2024 would be insane. While history might not exactly repeat itself, a Biden v. Trump scenario would come close enough to give pause to any American intent on officially retiring President Biden.

We saw this picture in 2020. Despite his obsessive denials, Mr. Trump lost that election. Even in the unsubstantiated event he lost due to Democratic malfeasance, Mr. Trump was ineffective in putting in place the machinery of election oversight — poll watchers, an army of lawyers — necessary to challenge election irregularities in real time on location, the only way to successfully confront voter fraud.

Mr. Trump’s efforts after the fact became farcical. So whether he lost fair and square or lost through incompetent policing doesn’t matter. He lost. Why should we expect a different outcome in 2024? It would be crazy.

Mr. Trump does many things well. There’s a joke about him being the worst President ever except for his policies. Any objective observer would rate him a strong president. He did a great job managing the economy. His corporate tax cuts were inspired and produced tremendous, inflation-free, economic growth and pretty much ended attempts by American corporations to redomicile. 

Certainly compared to the present situation, Mr. Trump managed the border well. Under the Trump administration, America achieved energy independence — even, one might, near dominance. His willingness, his delight, at being undiplomatic finally got the Europeans to move toward meeting their commitments to NATO of two percent of gross domestic product.  

Unfortunately, though, one of the things Mr. Trump does best is inspire Democrats to vote. Hence the outcome in 2020, when more Democrats came out to vote than ever before. There is no Democratic candidate who can motivate Democratic turnout the way Donald Trump can. This factor would be undiminished in 2024.

Clearly the Democrats, and in particular the Biden Administration, believe this to be true. Why else would they be working so hard, almost recklessly, to make sure that Mr. Trump is the nominee? The FBI raid on Mar-a-Largo, say, wasn’t simply a reckless act of a weaponized police state. It can be seen as a carefully calculated attempt to infuriate GOP voters and rally them around Donald Trump.  

The Bidens might even have hoped to incite a little white supremacist violence as well, though fortunately Republicans didn’t take that bait. The raid did succeed, according to polls, in boosting support for Mr. Trump.

Or take the indictment handed up by the district attorney of New York County, Alvin Bragg. The Democrats really aren’t so stupid as to find any legal merit in those charges. They no doubt figured that such absurd charges would inflame Republicans against this obvious political persecution of Trump. The polls say the strategy worked. Ever since the indictment, Mr. Trump has significantly expanded his lead over his main competitor, Governor DeSantis.

Mr. Trump’s sudden appearance of inevitability has provoked a number of somewhat naïve GOP office holders to endorse him. So expect the Democrats to do everything in their power to keep the Trump base fired up.

We don’t have any hard evidence that Democrats are actually donating money to Mr. Trump’s campaign, but his massively expensive TV barrage against Mr. DeSantis can only benefit Mr. Biden. No right-thinking Republican would support such insane behavior. Talk about a political circular firing squad.  

Mr. Trump, I’d hazard, is the only Republican Mr. Biden is certain to beat. He is a totally known quantity, so his unfavorability ratings speak volumes. They are unlikely to suddenly improve. If the GOP falls into the Democratic trap and renominates Mr. Trump it may be said the inmates have truly taken over the asylum.