When Michael and Sandra’s son turned three, they noticed the things that once seemed charming — his fixation on spinning toy trains, his withdrawal from group play — were becoming barriers to his development. He wasn’t talking like the other children, didn’t respond to his name, and preferred the comfort of repetition to the chaos of curiosity. 

A developmental pediatrician confirmed what they had begun to suspect: the toddler was on the autism spectrum. Their journey mirrors that of millions of families across the United States. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, roughly 1 in 36 children are now diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder — also referred to as ASD — a staggering rise over the past two decades. 

The Trump administration has made bold promises to find concrete answers. 

“With autism rates rising at an alarming pace, uncovering its etiology is a national imperative,” a Health and Human Services spokesperson tells the New York Sun. “Millions of American families are urgently seeking answers, and the National Institutes of Health is fully committed to leaving no stone unturned in confronting this catastrophic epidemic — employing only gold-standard, evidence-based science.”

According to the representative, under the leadership of Secretary Kennedy, “HHS is taking action on autism as the public health emergency it is.”

“As part of this commitment, the National Institutes of Health launched the Autism Data Science Initiative (ADSI) as a collaborative effort designed to gain new knowledge about autism that could be used to further our understanding of the condition and improve the well-being and health outcomes for people on the autism spectrum,” the spokesperson continued. 

“The initiative includes the development of a secure data repository that will enable researchers to analyze large-scale, de-identified data to better understand the causes of conditions like autism and chronic diseases.”

A Priority Under Trump and Kennedy

In recent months, autism, widely considered a neurodevelopmental difference, has surged back into the national spotlight — not just as a personal or medical issue but as a political one. 

In April, the Department of Health and Human Services unveiled a $50 million “real-world data” initiative to identify the causes of autism. Mr. Kennedy promised definitive findings within six months — a timeline that many scientists say borders on the implausible. The urgency, however, reflects how autism, long a quiet crisis, is now viewed by some in government as a national emergency.

The initiative has drawn fierce debate. 

“(This) is not a realistic expectation. Researchers have been investigating the causes of autism for 25-30 years,” Professor of Modifiable Factors in Autism Epidemiology Research Program Lead at Drexel University, Diana Schendel, tells the Sun. 

“Hundreds, if not thousands, of genes, may be contributing to the occurrence of autism. The single biggest lesson we have learned is that the causal underpinnings of autism are very complex. Consequently, the idea that there could be a single cause, discoverable in the next few months, is naïve.”

Still, many parents — desperate for answers — are paying close attention. For them, Mr. Kennedy’s promises stir hope and apprehension in equal measure.

Diagnoses of autism have risen significantly over the past few decades. For instance, the identified prevalence of autism spectrum disorder among eight-year-old children in the United States was 6.7 per 1,000 in 2000, but by 2022, this figure had increased to 32.2 per 1,000 children. 

This notable rise is attributed to factors like increased awareness, broader diagnostic criteria, and improved screening methods.

“We know that autism rates vary by states, based on the diagnostic practices in each state; they differ by race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status,” Chief Science Officer for the Autism Science Foundation, Alycia Halladay, tells the Sun. “It has been scientifically proven that access to services, including insurance, has had a huge role in increasing the prevalence.”

What We Do and Don’t Know

So, what are the known autism drivers?

Despite public confusion, science has made meaningful progress in understanding autism. One of the most consistent findings is that autism is highly genetic. Studies suggest that up to 90 percent of autism risk is heritable. 

Researchers have identified more than 100 genes associated with autism spectrum disorder, although no single gene is responsible.

“For over four decades, scientists have known that autism is heritable,” Ms. Halladay said. “The maternal or paternal inheritance can be from either side; it’s not static. In some cases, the genes can be tied to mother, some to father, but some are ‘de novo’ meaning they do not show up in either parent.”

She further pointed out that one or two rare genes don’t cause autism but by the cumulative effect of many common genetic differences that influence brain development. This complexity makes it challenging to explain, diagnose, or treat autism based on genetics alone.

Indeed, autism is not a monolith but a spectrum — a vast range of behaviors, developmental patterns, and neurological profiles. 

Director of the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment at Mount Sinai, Joseph Buxbaum, observed that “most of the recent genetic findings in autism have been de novo or spontaneous mutations.”

“These are mutations that occur at the formation of the sperm or egg. This is because they are so impactful on development, and therefore, they tend not to persist in the population. So they arise spontaneously to produce phenotypes like autism,” he tells the Sun.

 “It is now very clear that autism is largely genetic, and we have had the most amazing success of identifying hundreds of genes that, when mutated, profoundly increased the risk for autism.  We are now in a position of developing disease-modifying treatments for autism.”

Environmental influences — such as prenatal infections, air pollution, or maternal inflammation — may also play a role. However, no ecological factor has been shown to cause autism on its own. While lifestyle factors, such as parental age, may contribute to risk, they also are not the sole determinants.

“Older parents have more variants on their sex cells (eggs and sperm) and therefore a higher likelihood of a number of genetic conditions,” Ms. Halladay explained. “So far, there are about 200 rare genes identified associated with ASD.”

Mr. Buxbaum also noted that, for example, “it has been suggested that anti-epileptic drugs taken during pregnancy increase the risk for autism, but when a mom has epilepsy, whether or not she takes drugs, the genetic changes that are associated with epilepsy are also associated with increased risk for autism in the children.”

“So, it is not that the drug increased risk for autism so much as the ‘indication,’ the reason the mom took the drug in the first place,” he explained. 

Autistic clinical psychologist and neurodiversity consultant Daniel Wendler, however, underscored that “genetics contribute significantly more than environmental factors.”

“Autistic people have a combination of multiple genetic variants which, given a certain environment, may lead to differences in, for instance, synaptic development. Those genetic differences give rise to different traits, including strengths and challenges such as special talents/interests or difficulty understanding social conventions,” he tells the Sun. 

“These presentations differ greatly from one individual to another; no two autistic people are fully alike. In other words, current research indicates there’s no one cause of autism just as there is no ‘one autism’.”

What is a mystery is precisely how these interactions happen and why some children develop autism while others with similar genetic predispositions do not. After all, autism presents in highly individualized ways — sometimes with challenges, sometimes with exceptional abilities.

While some earlier studies pointed to fertility interventions such as in vitro fertilization as having higher autism outcomes than spontaneous pregnancy, Ms. Halladay stressed that “larger more recent studies demonstrated no credible association between IVF and autism.”

The Vaccine Debate Resurfaces

Despite being thoroughly debunked, the theory linking vaccines to autism has found renewed oxygen. The original claim, made by now-disgraced British doctor Andrew Wakefield in 1998, has been conclusively rejected by dozens of large-scale studies. Still, some political figures, including Mr. Kennedy, have revived vaccine skepticism, and are demanding answers. 

Earlier this year, Mr. Kennedy appointed Lyn Redwood — a vaccine skeptic and mother of an autistic son — to lead the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Immunization Safety Office. 

Mr. Kennedy also has led the charge to ban thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative still used in some flu vaccines, out of an abundance of caution, not due to scientific evidence of harm. 

Almost three decades after Dr. Wakefield’s report, multiple large-scale studies conducted by institutions such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Johns Hopkins, and the World Health Organization have all concluded the same thing: there is no credible link between vaccines and autism. 

Yet Kennedy’s platform has reintroduced these long-disputed theories into public discourse — prompting renewed debate over vaccine safety.

The Path Forward

While there is no known cure for autism, early intervention is considered the most evidence-backed strategy for improving outcomes. The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends autism screening at 18 and 24 months of age. Therapies such as Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA), speech therapy, and occupational therapy can help many autistic children communicate more effectively, adapt to daily routines, and reduce frustration.

Still, many in the neurodiversity movement argue that the goal should not be to “fix” autism but to support autistic individuals in living full, self-directed lives. 

Autism’s rise in visibility has come with greater support, awareness, advocacy — and political discrepancies. Scientists stress that Health and Human Services renewed focus, if conducted with transparency and scientific rigor, could advance the field. Yet, if driven by ideology, rushed deadlines, or discredited theories, it risks setting back decades of work — and trust.

“The hope is that good science will come out of this initiative, but as a rule, good science, especially as related to public health, doesn’t arise most readily from unusually short and challenging timelines,” Mr. Buxbaum cautioned. 

For families like Michael and Sandra’s, the science matters — but so does the support. The future of autism research lies not just in solving a puzzle, but in elevating the lives behind the diagnosis.

“Research that single-mindedly focuses on the causes of autism diverts resources away from advances that could actually improve the lives of autistic people,” Mr. Wendler added. “We need more research into quality-of-life improvements for autistic people, as well as greater funding for the supports that currently exist to help autistic people flourish.”