Iran Is Honing Its Military Fangs as Trump and Bibi Set Out To Remake the Mideast

As President Trump hosts Prime Minister Netanyahu Tuesday in an effort to remake the Mideast, a top foe of Israel and America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, is sharpening its fangs, including with a new, deeply dug missile base that can be used to threaten Israel and international shipping. “Iran is clearly flexing its offensive weapons in order to bully the West, specifically the United States, into negotiating a deal that would allow the Islamic Republic a path toward nuclear weapons. That should be avoided at any cost,” a former spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces, Jonathan Conricus, tells the Sun.Although in his first term Mr. Trump employed “maximum pressure” policies on Tehran, he now indicates a preference for a diplomatic solution over a kinetic attack. To date, though, he has declined to take the military option off the table. “If Israel’s objectives regarding Iran can be achieved through diplomacy rather than war, Netanyahu would welcome that,” a spokesman for the prime minister, Omer Dostri, told the Jerusalem Post as the premier prepared for his Tuesday White House meeting. Yet, the spokesman added, “there is deep skepticism in Jerusalem about whether diplomacy can truly resolve the issue.” The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps boasted about the underground base in front of television cameras Sunday, as well as unearthing a new type of missile that the IRGC claims can safely hit naval assets in Israel and beyond. Washington skeptics contend that Israel might not have the capacity to attack such deeply dug Iranian sites — or the Fordow nuclear facility that is situated deep under the ground in a mountainous area. In recent months, Mr. Conricus counters, the IDF “has demonstrated that it has the capacity to collect high value intelligence, penetrate and disable multiple layers of Iranian air defenses, and eventually strike prime targets deep in the Iranian heartland. One should assume that Israel is already prepared, or in advanced stages of preparations to have the similar combat capabilities regarding these newly exposed missile depots.”Mr. Trump seems to understand and sympathize with Israel’s precarious regional situation. Speaking to reporters from his Oval Office desk Monday he raised a black writing implement and said, “See this pen? My desk is the Middle East, and this pen, the top of the pen, that’s Israel.” Despite its small size, he added, what Israel is doing is “amazing.” Much of the Tuesday session at the White House, as well as a Monday meeting between Mr. Netanyahu and special envoy Steve Witkoff, is expected to advance a Gaza deal. Completing the next phases of a cease-fire deal and releasing all hostages will top the agenda, as will advancing normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.While both Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu are interested in hostage release and a Saudi deal, these issues could become tricky for the Israeli guest: Some of his political allies are threatening to bolt the coalition if he makes too many concessions to achieve these goals.“The open question right now is what degree of linkage, if any, is there for the Trump administration on Iran policy and the Gaza ceasefire,” a Tehran observer at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, Behnam Ben Taleblu, tells the Sun.Regardless, the Islamic Republic seems eager to undermine any advance of the American and Israeli objectives, including by flexing its muscles despite the military setbacks it has suffered in recent months. The IRGC unveiled the new missile base Sunday, claiming to have developed a new type of missile, the Ghadr-380. The Guards said in a statement that the missile is equipped with anti-jamming capabilities and has a range of more than 600 miles — longer than the distance between Iran and Israel. The new missile seems designed to aid the Tehran-backed Houthis in efforts to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea. It will “create hell for enemy vessels,” the Revolutionary Guards’ naval commander, Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, said while touring the missile facility alongside the IRGC commander, General Hossein Salami.The public parading of an underground facility and of a new missile follow the roll-out a few weeks ago of an underground naval base for assault boats. These vessels could be deployed, as necessary, at the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.Tehran’s new hyper-activity might be designed to send to Mr. Trump a signal: Washington had better negotiate if it wants to avoid military strikes on American and Israeli assets. Even if Mr. Trump decides to launch negotiations, though, he is likely to do so from a position of strength, which means adding pressure on the Islamic Republic in the near term. “Both Israel and the U.S. have a shared strategic incentive to maximize the Islamic Republic’s sense of fear to force concessions and restraint,” Mr. Ben Taleblu says. “The Iranian military parades and unveiling of underground missile depots aims to publicly punch back and rebuild the regime’s shattered deterrence.”

Iran Is Honing Its Military Fangs as Trump and Bibi Set Out To Remake the Mideast

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