As Israel contemplates a “severe” response to a multi-pronged attack on its soil from the Islamic Republic of Iran, it has few illusions that it would gain wide global support, and America is likely to lean on it to calibrate any counterattack. 

With arguably the world’s most advanced missile defenses, Israel managed to intercept most of more than 200 drones and ballistic and cruise missiles that the Iranians launched at it.

Most interceptions were conducted outside the country’s borders, the Israel Defense Force spokesman, Daniel Hagari, said.  “Dozens” of missiles and drones and missiles were intercepted by America, according to the Pentagon. Some, reportedly, were also intercepted by the British, Jordanians, and several other Arab countries.

Some missile shards endangered residents of Amman, Jordan. In an image that could raise all kinds of religious emotions, an intercepted missile was seen over the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, the third holiest site for Muslims.  

Yet, how long could such regional and global support — some declared, other tacit — last? Following the October 7 surprise attack by Iran’s proxy Hamas, Israel received much sympathy. Yet, it lasted no longer than short weeks, and then turned into pressure to end the Gaza war.  

Could the same dynamic be in play now? Top Jerusalem officials vow a “severe response,” according to Israeli reports. Other than a minor damage to an air base in the south and a severe injury to a 10-year-old girl, the attack fell short of the Iranian boast of a severe hit on Israel, Rear Admiral Hagari said.  

Tehran was quick to declare the event over and threatened against any further hostilities. “The matter can be deemed concluded,” Iran’s mission at the United Nations declared on X. However, it added, “should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY.”

President Biden spoke with Prime Minister Netanayhu on the phone, likely to urge him to calibrate any Israeli response. While in an election year, Washington is mostly eager to prevent an all-out regional war, Israel can hardly afford to let Iran’s rule-breaking attack slide. 

After President Obama declined to act on his own “red line,” which had been crossed by Iran-ally Syria, Sunni Arab countries started losing confidence in America’s willingness to protect them against their regional enemy. 

Trust was further eroded when Iran attacked Armaco’s largest installation in Saudi Arabia in 2019 and President Trump declined to respond militarily. President Biden’s easing of Iran sanctions led Riyadh and other Arab capitals to seek a rapprochement with Tehran.  

Yet, while never saying so publicly, Sunni countries looked for Israel to be the military counterweight to the Islamic Republic.

Unlike in western countries, the Mideast’s most admired commodity is power. Therefore, even beyond its own defense needs, Israel can ill-afford a weak response that would erode its image as the region’s strongest anti-Iran military power.