French Election Ends in a Bizarre Denouement

The strong showing by Mélenchon’s Nupes makes the left a contender down the road.

AP/Michel Euler
Hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon delivers his speech at his election night headquarters, June 19, 2022. AP/Michel Euler

The winner in France’s protracted electoral process of 2022 — the presidential and then the legislative ballots — is the pollsters. Their forecasts were strikingly accurate, round after round. They were even able to foretell a truly bizarre development two months in advance. 

Remember, on April 24, President Macron was re-elected with 58.5 percent support. Yet 56 percent of the voters wanted him to be denied a parliamentary majority, and 63 percent opined that such an outcome was “desirable.” This is just what happened Sunday in the legislative second round.

Monsieur Macron’s majority of 368 seats out of 577 in the outgoing National Assembly has been cut to about 240 seats — that is to say 50 seats or so below an absolute majority of 289. Even more disturbing is the opposition’s overhaul.

In the previous Assembly, the Macronists were dealing with one opposition group only worthy of that name — the decently conservative, 112-seats-strong Republican party. The rest of the opposition, however vocal, was Lilliputian — 30 socialists, 17 left wing radicals, 10 communists, and eight right wingers.

In the new Assembly, on the contrary, the much strengthened opposition will be dominated by two take-no-prisoners, populist groups. They are Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left wing Nupes, 141 seats, and Marine Le Pen’s right wing National Rally, 89 seats.

The Republicans, who have managed to retain more than 60 seats, may be seen as natural allies by the Macronists; it is not in their long-term interest, however, to give in easily. “We ran as opponents, and so will we stay,” the Republican party boss, Christian Jacob, stated right after the ballot. All the more so if this Parliament does not hold, and a snap election is called.

The French president is either a quasi-monarch as long as he is supported by the National Assembly or a lame duck when he is not. There are some intermediary options as well: If the president’s party enjoys at least a relative majority in the Assembly, a presidentially appointed prime minister may bypass actual votes through a question of confidence.

Conversely, short of a working majority, or if insuperable difficulties have arisen between him and an antagonistic parliamentary majority, the president can dissolve the Assembly. Chances are, considering the present political situation, that the first option will be tested for a while, and that the second might soon prove unavoidable.

So why are the French so ambivalent about Monsieur Macron as to simultaneously re-elect him and weaken his party? One answer is that it just mirrors Monsieur Macron’s own ambivalence. The president’s motto, after all, is “at the same time” (en même temps).

That means to switch constantly from conservatism to wokeism and back, to posture as the champion of both national identity and immigration, to support Ukraine while keeping in touch with Russia, to advocate a free-market revolution and then revert to Statist policies.

Such a strategy might work on some issues. Not on all. For the time being, a majority among the French still think that Mr. Macron is brighter — or just safer — than his opponents. Their trust, though, is wearing out.

Another answer is that Mr. Macron’s party does not exist. It was launched five years ago as a hastily arranged coalition of ambitious defectors from the Socialist Party and the Republicans, buttressed with numbers of naïve new figures stemming from the “civil society.”

The president’s versatility prevented his party from developing a distinct corporate identity. The best case scenario, for many Macronist candidates, was to supplant local conservatives (as was the case in the affluent Paris West End).

Naturally, one should not underestimate the populist parties’ achievements. Mr. Melenchon managed to turn an atomized and almost dying left into the National Assembly’s second largest group and a serious contender for national leadership.

Madame Le Pen broke the glass ceiling for good. The high rate of abstention (54 percent) worked as a magnifier for them this time, just as an even higher rate (57 percent) worked in 2017 for the Macronists.


The New York Sun

© 2025 The New York Sun Company, LLC. All rights reserved.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The material on this site is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used.

The New York Sun

Sign in or  Create a free account

or
By continuing you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use