Major Crime Drops to Pre-Pandemic Levels in Most American Cities, New Study Finds

The rate of major crimes across America has dropped to pre-pandemic levels in most major cities, according to a new study.The new mid-year report from the Council on Criminal Justice reviewed crime trends across 42 major American cities and compared the current numbers in 13 categories of crimes to numbers from both 2024 and 2019, before the onset of the Covid pandemic. The findings show notable decreases in major crimes like robbery, shoplifting, aggravated assault, and homicide.Violent crime has dropped significantly since 2019 in the cities studied. The first half of 2025 saw 14 percent fewer homicides, 30 percent fewer robberies, 28 percent fewer sexual assaults, and notable decreases in other violent crimes.The national homicide decline starting in late 2022 was largely driven by major drops in high-crime cities like Baltimore and St. Louis, according to the study’s authors.“One key factor that likely contributed to the decline across crime types is that the shock waves of the pandemic, as well as the social unrest after the pandemic, which contributed to the spike have largely dissipated,” a CCJ senior research specialist and co-author of the report, Ernesto Lopez, tells the Sun. “Still, we don’t fully understand what’s driving these shifts, which is why we need more independent research.”“When it comes to crime trends, there are often many theories and claims attached to those trends without clear data,” he said.While the murder rate has dropped across the country, not every city has seen a steep decline. While all sample cities are now below their 2020-21 peaks, more than 60 percent have homicide rates above pre-2020 levels.“These trends are promising, especially the drop in homicide rates, but much of the decrease in the national homicide rate continues to be driven by large declines in a handful of cities with high homicide levels,” Mr. Lopez said. “More than half of the cities we studied continue to experience higher homicide levels compared to levels seen prior to the pandemic.” “While we should continue to invest in evidence-based crime reduction strategies, we must also be cautious about claiming what is currently reducing crime without more rigorous evidence.”A pair of related research reports from the CCJ go deeper into the data of violent crimes and provide a possible explanation for why homicides rates have not dropped as much as other major crimes.One report looked at “long-term lethality trends” between 1994 and 2020 and found that while overall violence decreased across America, the share of deadly violence increased over time. The second report uncovered similar findings from data compiled from 17 large American cities between 2018 and 2024.

Major Crime Drops to Pre-Pandemic Levels in Most American Cities, New Study Finds

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