Speaker McCarthy is swinging through New York state to bolster the efforts of Republicans in what is lining up to be the front line for the battle for the House in 2024.

On Wednesday, Mr. McCarthy is attending a couple of fundraisers, one at Skaneateles and one at Sullivan County, in a show of support for two candidates who won their races narrowly in 2022, Congressmen Brandon Williams and Marc Molinaro.

In New York’s 22nd District, Mr. Williams defeated the Democratic nominee, Francis Conole, by just less than 1 point. In New York’s 19th District, Mr. Molinaro defeated the Democratic nominee, Josh Riley, by about 1.6 points.

At the fundraiser for Mr. Molinaro, Mr. McCarthy will be joined by local officials as well as some notable names in the New York GOP, such as the last Republican governor of New York, George Pataki.

The fundraisers are part of the speaker’s tour of the country, though the stops in New York carry extra weight because the state is expected to be at the center of the battle for the House in 2024.

In 2022, victories in New York delivered the House majority to Republicans. The GOP won six swing districts in the state in a year when the national party failed to deliver on its promise of a “red wave.”

A former congressman who is attending tonight’s fundraiser at Sullivan County, John Faso, tells the Sun that he’s confident in the party’s ability to defend its seats in New York, saying that “we have great incumbents with one exception” and that “those folks are going to be hard to beat.”

“I know that Speaker McCarthy and the National Republican Congressional Committee are strongly engaged in defending the New York seats and that’s why the speaker is in New York today,” Mr. Faso tells the Sun.

The one exception Mr. Faso referred to is the congressman from New York’s 3rd District, George Santos, who was in the national spotlight earlier this year after it became clear that the congressman creatively retold his personal history on the campaign trail in 2022.

Mr. Faso said that “the Republican Party is definitely not supporting George Santos,” though it doesn’t appear that the national GOP has a favorite recruit to challenge him in the primary at this time.

In Mr. Faso’s opinion, the political winds are blowing in favor of the GOP, at least in New York, though he added the caveat that the presidential race is likely to affect the New York House races, saying, “you never know what the national winds are and where they’re going.”

To support his claim that the issues at the top of New Yorkers’ minds are moving to advantage Republicans, Mr. Faso pointed to a recent Siena Research Institute survey that found discontent among New Yorkers concerning both President Biden and the current handling of the influx of migrants to New York.

The poll found that Mr. Biden’s favorability had gone underwater for the first time in New York, with 46 percent of New Yorkers viewing the president favorably and 50 percent viewing him unfavorably.

The poll found that voters overwhelmingly feel that the recent influx of migrants to the state has become a “serious problem,” with 82 percent saying so, though pollster Steven Greenberg said that “that’s where partisan agreement ends.”

“A plurality of Democrats says that migrants resettling in New York over the last two decades has been a benefit,” Mr. Greenberg said. “But, a majority of independents and two-thirds of Republicans say that migrant resettlement has been a burden to the state.”

There is, though, a wild card that could change the landscape of the House races in 2024. New York’s congressional district lines will be re-litigated at the state’s highest court, the court of appeals, this November, and it could throw a wrench in 2024 preparations for both parties.

In July, the appellate division in a 3-to-2 ruling said the maps that candidates ran on in 2022 from a special master, Jonathan Cervas, had been too hastily drawn in an attempt to get them in place before the midterms and that they could be redrawn ahead of the 2024 elections.

In November, the court of appeals will hear the case. Although the court ruled in a 4-to-3 decision to appoint the special master last year, the makeup of the court has since changed.

Associate Judge Caitlin Halligan assumed a seat on the court in April, and her vote could be decisive in swinging the case and giving the legislature another opportunity to redraw the state’s district maps.

Mr. Faso, who is involved on the Republican side in the redistricting case, called the lawsuit a “hail Mary” and said he thought Democrats were looking for a “do-over.”

“It’s just speculation at this point,” he says. “I think we’re going to win the case at the court of appeals. The constitution is clear — we don’t have mid-decade redistricting.”