The senior senator from New Jersey, Robert Menendez — already under federal indictment — may be an even bigger headache for his party come November. He’s considering going it alone on the ballot, a boon to his bottom line and to Republican hopes of flipping Senate control.  

“The embattled senator,” NBC’s congressional correspondent, Julie Tsirkin, reported earlier today of Mr. Menendez, “who has faced many charges in his multiple court battles, is now apparently eyeing an independent run for Senate according to two sources.”

Ms. Tsirkin cited “several reasons” for Mr. Menendez choosing to leave the party, which has tried to force him to resign. The charges against the senator include details seen as mortal wounds in politics, such as the FBI discovering those gold bars in his home.

The GOP hasn’t elected a senator in the Garden State since Clifford Case won in 1972. Two Republicans have been appointed to the position in the decades since, but none won the office in his own right despite Republicans winning the governorship several times during that period.

A Monmouth University poll last week found that of the four Republicans declared for the June 4 primary, the mayor of Mendham, Christine Serrano Glassner, had the most name recognition at 24 percent of GOP voters. 

Overall, 23 percent percent of voters said Senate control would be “the most important factor” in their vote. 

Mr. Menendez and his wife, Nadine Menendez, face a slew of charges including conspiracy to obstruct justice, acting as an agent of a foreign government, and accepting bribes from a foreign government, among others.

A Department of Justice statement in September said that Mr. Menendez “allegedly agreed to use his official position to benefit” named associates “and the government of Egypt in exchange for hundreds of thousands of dollars of bribes … which included gold bars, cash, and a luxury convertible.”

The four bars are central to the case against Mr. and Mrs. Menendez, who have requested separate trials. A local businessman, Fred Daibes — among those accused of bribing the couple — had reported the gold stolen in 2013 during an armed robbery.

To get on the Democratic primary ballot, Mr. Menendez must gather 1,000 signatures by March 25. He’d then have to carry the baggage of ongoing litigation onto the campaign trail where he’d face a crowded field. Declared candidates include the state’s first lady, Tammy Murphy, and Congressman Andrew Kim.

Mr. Menendez faces very long odds of winning renomination. In late January, a poll of registered voters in the Garden State by Fairleigh Dickinson University found him in third place at nine percent, trailing Mr. Kim at 32 percent and Ms. Murphy at 20.

As an independent, Mr. Menendez would need just 800 signatures to achieve ballot access. Forgoing the Democratic primary would also provide breathing room to collect the required support. Ms. Tsirkin reported the deadline would be set for June 4, the date of the Democratic Primary.

Mr. Menendez is already calling allies and “is starting to collect petitions as well to start that signature-gathering process,” Ms. Tsirkin said. If he fails to get the required signatures, New Jersey offers the option of running as a write-in candidate.

In 2015, Mr. Menendez was indicted on 14 criminal counts, including eight for bribery. He survived trial in 2016 and over Republican objections, Democrats stood by their man, renominating him in 2018 and supporting his reelection in a year they were heavy favorites.

Now, the Senate majority hangs on a single vote. Vice President Harris provides a tiebreaker, but the loss of Mr. Menendez’s seat would give Republicans 50 members if all else stays the same. A Republican in the White House would then tilt the upper chamber out of Democratic hands.

“There is no way that he can win this seat,” Mr. Kim told NBC of Mr. Menendez, “but what he could do is jeopardize this seat and give Republicans a chance.” In New Jersey’s last statewide election, 2021, Mr. Murphy won in a squeaker of 84,268 voters, just 3.2 percent.

Even if Mr. Menendez were not stung by his party’s abandonment, an independent run has another benefit. As a candidate, he can still fundraise from supporters and then spend that money on his mounting legal bills.

Mr. Menendez began his career as mayor of Union City in 1986. Since then, he has served in both houses of New Jersey’s legislature, as the representative of its 13th congressional district, and as its senior senator.

This long climb may end with a fall this time. Democrats felt they had no choice but to cut Mr. Menendez loose to keep his Senate seat — the very seat he may deliver into Republican hands should his well-known, well-connected name appear on the ballot this November.