In less than two years, France, lacking a parliamentary majority, will have seen five prime ministers. First, there was Elisabeth Borne, 64, a bland former socialist politician from the upper echelons of public service, dismissed in January 2024 by President Emmanuel Macron. Then came the meteoric Gabriel Attal, 36, who resigned in the wake of the disastrous June 2024 dissolution of parliament. That was a move he insisted he did not want.The conservative Michel Barnier, 74, a former European commissioner, was in office for only three months, between September and December 2024. He was ousted by a vote of no confidence supported by both the woke, Islamist far-left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed party and the populist right of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s National Rally.Monsieur Barnier’s centrist successor, François Bayrou, was disavowed this week, and after just 10 months, by the national assembly. It was done by the same coalition of extremes. Like Mr. Barnier, he sought to impose “efforts” on the nation to limit or reduce a debt that has reached 3.345 trillion euros, or 114 percent of GDP, and continues to grow. For the far-left, this was an attack on “the people.” For the hard right, it was a false remedy that ignored the “real problems” such as uncontrolled immigration.Now Sébastien Lecornu, 39, a Macron loyalist from the right and the minister of defense for the past three years, takes over. Will he manage to remain in place until the next presidential election in the spring of 2027? If he fails, the assembly will be dissolved again. And if a majority still does not emerge in parliament at that time, the possibility of an early presidential election will become more likely. Whatever the scenario, it is clear that the 1958 constitution, which was meant to guarantee the stability of institutions and a strong executive branch, is unraveling.Barely appointed, and before even forming his cabinet, Monsieur Lecornu must manage a near-insurrectionary situation, not unlike the crisis that marked Monsieur Macron’s first five-year term: the Yellow Vests movement. Once again, the country is paralyzed by strikes, demonstrations, riots, street violence, a climate of civil war, and calls for the president’s removal.What is new, however — behind what is purportedly a political and social demand, supported by half the nation — is the rise of a demographic and religious divide. In the far-left marches, one sees not French flags, or even red or black flags, but omnipresent Palestinian banners.The qualities that ensure the success of a politician in normal times are ineffective in the face of such a storm. Does Monsieur Lecornu possess other, rarer qualities? He has a reputation for being hardworking, patient, courteous, and attentive to his interlocutors. Above all, he is known for thinking for himself. It is in this way that, as the supervising minister, he has earned the trust of the military and those involved in strategic affairs.One can be convinced of this by reading the interview on current geopolitics that he gave in July to the conservative magazine Valeurs Actuelles. Some assertions or conclusions are debatable, but what generally prevails is a realistic tone.On the Iranian threat: “Uranium enriched to 60% is their war treasure. I would point out that there is no civilian use for this form of uranium.” Moreover, “a nuclear warhead is nothing without the ability to deliver it, that is to say, to insert it into a missile. This is probably where Iranian advances have been most spectacular in recent years. Iran has become a country that has complete mastery of the propulsion of its missiles.”Monsieur Lecornu continues: “Our political and media system believes that the Iranian problem can be solved in two days, then we can go on vacation with peace of mind. We underestimate Iran’s strategic, technical, technological, and scientific depth, as well as its natural resources. It is a great country, a past master in circumventing sanctions. What is more, it is cornered and paranoid.” He adds that Iran’s “proxies” have been “neutralized by Israel in a short time, but we must also remember to what extent these proxies had acquired a power of nuisance throughout the region.”Is it enough to have a clear understanding of world affairs to govern France in 2025? And can one move from a good command of one sector of public life to a command of all sectors? No. But every advantage counts.
