Mortgage Interest Rates Creeping Down but Affordability Is Weighing on Housing Sales

Mortgage rates are dropping with the Federal Reserve expected to announce interest rate cuts on Wednesday, but the declines may not be enough to spur a new real estate boom due to persistent affordability issues.The Fed’s rate cuts became more likely after the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s August employment report showed job growth slowing significantly and prior months’ gains revised downward. The unemployment rate held relatively stable only because people left the workforce.The first of several anticipated cuts by the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors could be as small as 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, but there is growing anticipation that the Fed will cut interest rates aggressively in the coming months. The expectations have pushed investors to drive mortgage rates lower.Mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Fed rate but are more closely connected to the longer-term 10-year Treasury note.The average 30-year fixed mortgage is now 6.25 percent, the lowest of the year and down from more than 7 percent in January. That has upped the average homebuyer’s purchasing power by more than $20,000 since mid-summer, according to research from brokerage firm Redfin. The current rates are now below Zillow’s previous year-end projections.The drop may only bring a small relief to people looking to buy homes, however. Home values are up more than 50 percent in the past five years.“Even with modest rate relief, affordability remains a major hurdle for homebuyers,” a senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, Kara Ng, says. “More sellers have come off the sidelines, especially in the first half of this year, but the buyer pool has not kept pace, leading to a high number of listings and price cuts.”Zillow says that more major metro areas are shifting into neutral or buyer’s markets — a big shift from the seller-dominated markets of the past few years.“For buyers who can navigate today’s affordability constraints, the market has become more favorable,” Ms. Ng says. “There’s less competition, more inventory, and greater negotiating power.”Yet many potential buyers have remained on the sidelines. “There’s not a flood of buyers now that mortgage rates are coming down, but I am seeing a trickle as some house hunters do the math and realize rates have dropped enough to fit a monthly payment into their budget,” a Nashville Redfin agent, Kristin Sanchez, says.“A lot of house hunters are waiting because they think mortgage rates will drop more when the Fed cuts interest rates,” Ms. Sanchez adds. “I’m trying to advise buyers that’s unlikely to happen, and that now is a good time to lock in a rate.”But the CEO of mortgage brokerage firm GoRascal, Scott Valins, questions if the first expected rate cut will change the market. He says buyers have already grown accustomed to a higher interest rate environment.“It’s not a frozen housing market by any means,” Mr. Valins says. “Rates have remained elevated but this has turned out to become a new normal for homebuyers. And there’s not a lot of resistance to homebuying due to the rates themselves.”Mr. Valins says he expects mortgage demand to accelerate as interest rate cuts come into focus. He says that more people who have fixed rates below 4 percent might be more likely to feel they can sell and buy a new home if rates continue to drop.“The real question is whether there is more room to run on this improvement of interest rates and are we going to kind of plateau here at high fives, low sixes on 30-year fixed mortgages or is there or is there an opportunity for interest rates to move comfortably into the low fives or even the high fours.”

Mortgage Interest Rates Creeping Down but Affordability Is Weighing on Housing Sales

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