Despite the House electing a new speaker last week, lobbyists and legislators are pessimistic that lawmakers will be able to avert a government shutdown next month.

A new survey from Punchbowl News and LSG found that 82 percent of lobbyists who responded thought that a government shutdown was likely before the end of the year. By party affiliation, 85 percent of Democrats surveyed and 79 percent of Republicans thought that a shutdown would happen.

The survey was conducted between October 2 and October 20, before the House elected its new speaker. It’s not clear, though, whether Speaker Johnson will be able to successfully navigate lawmakers around the same impasse that Speaker McCarthy faced.

This was a follow-up to a survey from the same pollster conducted in September that found that 92 percent of congressional staffers thought that a shutdown was imminent.

Since assuming the office of the speaker, Mr. Johnson has projected confidence that he would be able to steer the House away from a shutdown, telling Fox News that reaching a funding agreement was his “first priority.”

“If indeed we come to November 17 and we’re unable to finish that because it’s detailed work and it takes some time, we’ll look at another stopgap measure,” Mr. Johnson said. “If we run out of time on the calendar, we may need a little bit more to complete it.”

Mr. McCarthy was ousted from the speakership earlier this month in part because of his efforts to avert a shutdown by bringing a continuing resolution — a measure to fund the government and give Congress more time to pass a regular budget — to the floor.

Mr. Johnson will need to coordinate not only with his own Republican conference in the House but also with members of both parties in the Senate and President Biden in order to keep the government open. Earlier this year, most Republicans voted against a budget deal struck by Mr. McCarthy with Mr. Biden, and House Republicans proceeded to push for budget proposals well below the levels agreed to by GOP leadership and the White House.

In Mr. Johnson’s first remarks after the speaker election, he signaled that he understands the challenge of passing a budget and gestured towards a debt commission, a measure adopted by previous Congresses as a concession to budget hawks.

“The greatest threat to our national security is our nation’s debt,” Mr. Johnson said. “We know this is not going to be an easy task, and tough decisions will have to be made. But the consequences if we don’t act now are unbearable. We have a duty to the American people to explain this to them so they understand it well.”