NASA has upped the chances of a recently discovered asteroid — nicknamed  “the city destroyer” or “the city killer” — colliding with Earth.

The asteroid, officially known as “Asteroid 2024 YR4,” was discovered on December 27, 2024, and is listed as the most dangerous space object near Earth. It was recently placed on NASA’s risk list of near-Earth objects.

In a recent update, NASA raised the probability of the asteroid impacting Earth’s surface to 2.3 percent or a one-in-43 chance — a rise from previous estimates of 1.2 percent, a one-in-83 chance. The numbers also align with forecasts from other large space agencies, including the European Space Agency, which predicted a 2 percent chance of it making an impact.

The YR4 spans 100 meters and has been nicknamed “the city destroyer” and “city killer” because its impact is comparable to 8 million tons of dynamite. The resulting explosion, if it careened into the Earth, would be 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on the Japanese city of Hiroshima during World War II. It would have a 31-mile blast radius around the point of impact, according to Wired.

Even though the odds of impact have doubled, most in the space community, including NASA, believe that YR4 will zoom past the planet.

“We are still a 97.7 percent chance of a miss from this asteroid,” astronomer and self-described “asteroid hunter,” David Rankin told Space.com. “We still expect that to start falling at some point. People should absolutely not worry about this yet.”

Mr. Rankin said that even the smallest of variables could change the trajectory of YR4 before it comes near Earth’s orbit in 2032.

“Imagine holding a stick that is a few feet long. If you move the stick in your hand a fraction of an inch, you hardly notice any movement on the other end,” he said. 

“Now imagine that stick is many millions of miles long. Moving your hand a fraction of an inch will cause dramatic changes on the other end.”