An analysis of recent statewide and national polls shows President Bush continuing to lead in the race to chalk up electoral votes, but the race has tightened even more and is still far too close to call. There are 538 total electoral votes, with 270 needed to win the election.

This nonpartisan analysis of publicly released polling data shows a total of 197 electoral votes in the “Solid Bush” or “Leaning Bush” columns, and 188 electoral votes in the “Solid Kerry” or “Leaning Kerry” columns, where the candidates are leading by at least 5 percentage points. Adding the states that are slightly leaning toward either of the candidates, Mr. Bush is leading 254-238, with Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the “Toss-up” column, where polls are inconsistent or show a dead-heat. In light of recent polls, we have moved Wisconsin from “Slightly Leaning Bush” to the “Toss-up” column, Arkansas from “Slightly Leaning Bush” to “Leaning Bush,” and Oregon from “Slightly Leaning Kerry” to “Leaning Kerry.”

In order to win, Mr. Bush first needs to hang on to the 254 electoral votes currently projected in his column. He then needs to either win Ohio, which is currently a toss-up state; win Pennsylvania, where Kerry currently has a slight lead, or pick up 16 electoral votes from other toss-up states or states in which Mr. Kerry is currently ahead.

For Mr. Kerry to win, he must also focus on keeping the 238 votes currently in his column. He then needs to pick up an additional 32 electoral votes by either winning Ohio plus 12 more votes, or by taking Florida from the Bush column plus another 5 electoral votes. If Mr. Kerry doesn’t win Florida or Ohio, it will be difficult for him to secure 32 electoral votes from other states.