An analysis of recent statewide and national polls shows Senator Kerry taking the lead in projected electoral votes, but the race continues to be far too close to call. There are 538 total electoral votes, with 270 needed to win the election.

This nonpartisan analysis of publicly released polling data shows a total of 182 electoral votes in the “Solid Bush” or “Leaning Bush” columns and 181 electoral votes in the “Solid Kerry” or “Leaning Kerry” columns, where the candidates are leading by at least 5 percentage points. Adding the states that are slightly leaning for either of the candidates, Mr. Kerry is leading 242-227, with Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the “toss-up” column, where polls are inconsistent and/or show a dead heat. In light of recent polls, we have moved Florida from “Slightly Leaning Bush” to “Toss-up” and North Carolina from “Leaning Bush” to “Slightly Leaning Bush.”

Like many others, we believe the results from Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will be critical in determining the winner of the election. As of now, all three states are very close. In Florida, (which we now consider to be a toss-up), a survey of the nine most recent polls finds President Bush leading in four polls, Mr. Kerry leading in four polls, and one poll showing a dead-heat. In Ohio (which we also consider to be a toss-up) six recent polls are almost equally divided, with three polls showing Mr. Kerry ahead, two polls showing Mr. Bush ahead and one poll showing a tie. Finally, in Pennsylvania (which we view as leaning slightly to Mr. Kerry), seven of eight recent polls show Mr. Kerry ahead but generally by margins less than the polls’ respective margins of error.