An analysis of recent statewide and national polls shows the race for president continues to be too close to call, with several key states deadlocked between President Bush and Senator Kerry. There are 538 total electoral votes, with 270 needed to win the election.

This nonpartisan analysis of publicly released polling data shows a total of 183 electoral votes in the “Solid Bush” or “Leaning Bush” columns and 179 electoral votes in the “Solid Kerry” or “Leaning Kerry” columns, where the candidates are leading by at least 5 percentage points. Adding the states that are slightly leaning for either of the candidates, Mr. Bush is leading 234 to 224, with Florida, Hawaii, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the “toss-up” column, where polls are inconsistent and/or show a dead-heat.

In light of recent polls, we have moved Hawaii from “Solid Kerry” to “Toss-up,” Minnesota from “Slightly Leaning Kerry” to “Toss-up,” Maine and New Jersey from “Slightly Leaning Kerry” to “Leaning Kerry,” Iowa from “Toss-up” to “Slightly Leaning Bush,” Missouri from “Slightly Leaning Bush” to “Leaning Bush,” and Arkansas and Nevada from “Leaning Bush” to “Slightly Leaning Bush.”

With only seven days until Election Day, the race has become even more uncertain. There are now seven states with a total of 80 electoral votes in the toss-up column, and the race appears to be tied in the two biggest toss-up states, Ohio and Florida. Moreover, states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa – which we categorize as slightly leaning to one of the candidates – are all very close and should still be considered in play.