Among Republicans, Huckabee Takes First Victory

DES MOINES, Iowa — A former Arkansas governor with a poorly financed, thinly staffed presidential campaign, Michael Huckabee, scored an upset win in the Republican caucuses here, posing a challenge to establishment Republicans dubious of his national appeal.Mr. Huckabee’s decisive victory was a blow in particular to Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who invested millions of dollars in Iowa and was a clear front-runner here for much of the past year.Huckabee With 87% of precincts reporting, Mr. Huckabee had the support of 34% of caucus-goers, while Mr. Romney had 26%. Third place was neck-and-neck between Fred Thompson, who had 13%, and Senator McCain of Arizona, who also had 13%. Rep. Ron Paul came in fifth with 10%. Mayor Giuliani, who essentially ignored Iowa, trailed far behind with 4%.“Tonight, what we have seen is a new day in American politics,” Mr. Huckabee told a raucous crowd in Des Moines. “It starts here in Iowa, but it doesn’t end here. It goes all the way through the other states and ends at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.”In a victory speech striking populist chords, Mr. Huckabee boasted that he had won despite being outspent by Mr. Romney by a margin of at least 15 to one. “The first thing we’ve learned is people really are more important than the purse,” he said. “What a great lesson for America to learn.”“We won the silver,” Mr. Romney said last night, invoking his role as the head of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Utah. “You win the silver in one event, it doesn’t mean you’re not going to come back and win the gold in the final event, and that we’re going to do.” In a rare glitch for Mr. Romney’s tightly managed campaign, many television outlets passed on live coverage of the speech because Senator Obama of Illinois was declaring victory in the Democratic contest.Republicans across the country will have to decide in the coming weeks whether to embrace Mr. Huckabee, a candidate whose positions on a series of issues are at odds with the party’s typical stances. In Arkansas, he promoted sales and fuel tax hikes. He opposes school vouchers and has been endorsed by the largest teachers’ union in New Hampshire. As governor, he called for a compassionate approach to illegal immigrants, though he recently endorsed one of the most restrictive immigration policies of any presidential candidate. Mr. Huckabee also broke with the other major Republican contenders by denouncing President Bush’s foreign policy as “arrogant.”Conservative Christian churchgoers formed the backbone of support in Iowa for Mr. Huckabee, a former Baptist minister. It is unclear whether he will able to find similar levels of support in states with fewer religiously motivated voters, such as New Hampshire, which holds the first primary vote on Tuesday. Another open question is whether Mr. McCain, Mr. Thompson, or Mr. Giuliani will emerge in coming contests as a clear, unifying alternative to Mr. Huckabee.Last night, the Republican caucus crowd at a Presbyterian church in Clive, Iowa, spilled out of the sanctuary, filling a nearby choir room and most of a hallway. Participants loudly complained that they could not hear the presentations on behalf of the candidates.The local caucus chairman, Peter Jeffries, said he expected between 120 and 150 people to turn out based on past numbers. The actual crowd was about three times that. All the attendees were white, and most were young or middle-aged.Many of the earliest to arrive at the Clive caucus were first-time caucus-goers who said they came out to back Mr. Huckabee. Nearly all of those interviewed said they were drawn to his background as a Baptist minister.“At the end of the day, this is a man who is determined and driven by his Christian faith,” a marketing specialist, Jessica Dunker, 41, said. “This man is a superb communicator.”“I like the fact that he’s not afraid to talk about his religious background. He believes his faith will help him,” a computer programmer, John Bryan, 35, said. Mr. Bryan said he was unfazed by ads noting tax increases Mr. Huckabee implemented in Arkansas. “He was willing to support that to get things done,” Mr. Bryan said.Another Huckabee supporter, Megan Beebe, 30, acknowledged that Mr. Romney’s religion was a factor for her. “I have difficulty with him being a Mormon. We’re of the Christian faith,” she said. Asked if she does not consider Mormons to be truly Christian, she looked a bit sheepish and said, “Honestly, yeah.”Ms. Beebe, a pediatrician, also said she disliked Mr. Romney’s negative ads. “He’s trying to trick you. You can tell they’re taken out of context,” she said.A backer of Mr. Giuliani, Marc Havnen, 38, said he wavered after the former mayor decided to skip the Iowa contest but that he couldn’t find anyone else worth supporting. Mr. Havnen, a salesman, said he likes Mr. Giuliani because of his plans for tax cuts and his response to the terrorist attacks on New York in 2001. “He helped heal the country after 9/11,” Mr. Havnen said.Asked about the former mayor’s position on social issues like abortion and gay rights, Mr. Havnen said, “Those are not a huge deal to me.”While Mr. Huckabee got a substantial boost from evangelical voters in Iowa, he lagged far behind with other Republicans. A poll television networks took of caucus-goers last night found the former Arkansas governor carried just 14% of those who said they were not born-again or evangelical. Mr. Romney got 33% of those voters. Messrs. McCain and Thompson also outpaced Mr. Huckabee with that group.Some of his backers acknowledged that appeal might not sway enough voters in other states. “I don’t know how he’ll do there,” Tyler Dunker, 42, said. “These caucuses are a great opportunity for us to propel the person we agree with most. … He might make a good vice presidential candidate for someone.”Last night, Mr. Huckabee seemed to acknowledge that he faces an uphill battle outside Iowa. “I wish it were all over tonight and we could just celebrate the whole thing,” he said.Unlike Iowa Democrats, who divide into candidate-preference groups at caucuses, Republicans vote by secret ballots distributed individually in response to an alphabetical roll call of attendees. Several less-devoted caucus-goers in Clive decided to leave when they saw that it might take an hour or more to be called up to get a ballot. “This is just chaos,” one woman said as she headed for the parking lot. “I can’t wait around for this.”The one-minute speeches each campaign was permitted to give also produced some hitches.Mr. Romney’s representative used up his minute praising the former governor for donating money and fund-raising help to the county Republican Party, feats that might not win over casual voters still making up their minds. Mr. Thompson’s speaker, who hailed from Tennessee, opened by citing her candidate’s support for ethanol and opposition to the estate tax. Both are useful talking points with Iowa farmers, but less urgent among the office-park workers who inhabit Des Moines suburbs like Clive.No one spoke on behalf of Mr. Giuliani, though any supporter could have asked to do so. While Mr. Huckabee’s supporters were ardent and open about their preference, in the final tally, Mr. Romney won the suburban precinct with 141 votes. Mr. Huckabee had just 91.One Republican hopeful, Mr. Thompson, spent much of the day yesterday addressing the possibility that he might drop out of the race. He vehemently denied a report from an online political news outlet, Politico, that a disappointing finish would prompt him to withdraw and endorse Mr. McCain.“That is absolutely made up out of whole cloth,” Mr. Thompson told a syndicated radio host, Sean Hannity. “I have a pretty good idea where it’s coming from,” he said, without elaborating on the source he suspected. “They’re trying to suppress my vote as much as they can.”The former senator conceded that the story about him potentially dropping out had its intended effect. “Everybody in the state has asked me,” he said. “It’s worked for them.”

Among Republicans, Huckabee Takes First Victory

Among Republicans, Huckabee Takes First Victory

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