Analysis: Bush Holds Slim Electoral Lead

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The New York Sun

An analysis of recent statewide and national polls shows President Bush is leading in the race to chalk up electoral votes, but the race is still far too close to call. There are 538 total electoral votes, with 270 needed to win the election.


This nonpartisan analysis of publicly released polling data shows a total of 191 electoral votes in the “Solid Bush” or “Leaning Bush” columns and 181 electoral votes in the “Solid Kerry” or “Leaning Kerry” columns, where the candidates are leading by at least 5 percentage points. Adding the states that are slightly leaning for either of the candidates, Mr. Bush is leading 264-238, with Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Ohio in the “toss-up” column, where polls show a dead-heat. All state polls were conducted before the second presidential debate last Friday.


Of the toss-up states, Ohio is the biggest prize, with 20 electoral votes. Before the first debate, Mr. Bush had been leading in Ohio and Iowa, but Senator Kerry has closed the gap and may be leading in those states, according to some recent polls. In New Hampshire, recent polls show the race tied, whereas in New Mexico some polls show Mr. Kerry in the lead and others show Mr. Bush ahead.


Also important are several states where the race is still very tight. Senator Kerry maintains narrow leads in Pennsylvania and Minnesota, according to most polls, but some polls see these states as virtual ties that could easily go to Mr. Bush. Similarly, while the president leads in Florida and Wisconsin, the leads are relatively slim, and it is still quite possible for Mr. Kerry to overtake Mr. Bush in those states.


The electoral vote race is so tight that the election may come down to special elector provisions in Maine and Colorado. Only two of Maine’s four electoral votes are allocated to the winner of the state’s popular vote, while the other two votes are allocated to the winner of the popular vote in each of the state’s two congressional districts. In a close race, it is possible for Maine’s four electoral votes to be split 3-1 between the candidates. In Colorado, voters will cast their ballots on a state constitutional amendment that would allocate Colorado’s nine electoral votes proportionally between the candidates. While recent polls suggest the amendment may be losing support, Colorado’s electoral votes could be split 5-4 between the candidates if it passed. If the election ultimately hinged on Colorado’s electoral votes, it seems certain the amendment’s validity would be challenged in the courts.


The New York Sun

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