Of all the presidential contenders, Senator Biden of Delaware may have the most detailed and realistic plan for ending the Iraq war. But strangely, his effort to be seen as a voice of reason on Iraq may be enough to cost him whatever chance he has of winning the Democratic nomination.

As the other candidates try to outdo each other with ever-accelerating proposals to bring American troops home, Mr. Biden is the only Democratic hopeful regularly warning audiences about the consequences of a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq.

“The next person who tells you to get out of Iraq, ask them, ‘What next?'” the Delaware senator said at a union-sponsored forum in Nevada last week. “If that civil war metastasizes into a regional war, we’re going to be sending your grandchildren back. We’re going to be sending your grandchildren back to deal with Iran. There’s a way to do this the right way.”

The right way, according to Mr. Biden, is a plan he endorsed about 10 months ago to divide the country into semiautonomous regions, largely along religious lines. “This president continues to try to have a strong central power. That’s not within the capacity” of Iraqis now, Mr. Biden said. “Not one person but me has offered a specific political solution for inside Iraq, and the Iraqis can’t do it by themselves. … We need a federal system.”

In a phone interview from the hustings in New Hampshire yesterday, Mr. Biden said voters are responding to his message. “People get it. They know there’s nothing simple about Iraq,” the senator told The New York Sun.

Still, he acknowledged that crowds are most vocal when candidates make rousing calls for withdrawal. “When I say the line, ‘This war must end,’ that gets the biggest applause,” Mr. Biden said.

The co-author of Mr. Biden’s Iraq plan, Leslie Gelb, said the Delaware senator deserves credit for talking about a responsible exit from Iraq. “He’s stuck with it even though it hasn’t helped him among Democrats,” Mr. Gelb, a former New York Times reporter and president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, said. “We’ve picked up more support among Republicans.”

The rush by other Democratic candidates to appeal to the “out now” crowd has left Mr. Biden as the closest thing to a moderate on the Iraq issue. While his aides and backers shudder at the comparison, it’s a lonely position not dissimilar to that of Senator Lieberman of Connecticut when he ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004.

“The party has shifted so far to the left that what Biden is saying can be seen as centrist or semi-conservative, “a former chief of staff to Mr. Lieberman, Daniel Gerstein, said.

Mr. Gerstein, who is not related to this reporter, said he sees no political benefit to Mr. Biden. “If he wasn’t already out of the running, it could be disqualifying,” the adviser quipped. “Unfortunately, Democrats aren’t looking for a leader. In many ways, they’re looking for a follower, someone who’s going to parrot back to them what they want to hear.”

In an interview with the Sun this week, Mr. Lieberman offered words of praise for his Delaware colleague. However, in what must be a relief for Mr. Biden, enough political distance remains between Messrs. Biden and Lieberman to protect Mr. Biden from being saddled with the dreaded “Joementum” of the Connecticut senator’s short-lived presidential bid.

“When I hear Joe Biden acknowledge that precipitous withdrawal will create a disaster on the ground, I appreciate it,” Mr. Lieberman said. “If the U.S. left, ethnic slaughtering and ethnic cleansing would be going on on a scale that would make Bosnia look mild.”

Mr. Lieberman made clear, though, that he disagrees with Mr. Biden’s stated desire to withdraw American troops from Iraq by 2008. The Connecticut senator’s position on Mr. Biden’s plan to decentralize power in Iraq is more nuanced.

“It’s a well-intentioned proposal, but I don’t favor it,” Mr. Lieberman said. He said that while the north and the south of Iraq are “relatively homogenous,” the middle of the country cannot be easily separated along religious lines. “You’d really have to have forced movement of people out or some understanding their rights would be respected,” Mr. Lieberman said. Still, the Connecticut senator did not dismiss the Biden plan altogether. “If our aim to have a strong central government and a unified country doesn’t work, this is a possible fallback position,” Mr. Lieberman said.

Mr. Biden said critics of his plan, who sometimes refer to it as partition, are right to worry about ethnic cleansing, but wrong to tie it to his proposal. “Ethnic cleansing has already occurred to the tune of 3.8 million people,” he said, referring to those who have moved or fled Iraq to avoid death squads and violence. Critics have also said the plan could lead to the breakup of the country, but Mr. Biden said prodding Iraq toward a decentralized government is the only thing that can prevent further chaos and possible invasion from neighboring states.

Mr. Biden said polls showing that Americans favor a quick withdrawal represent an “aspiration” that doesn’t preclude a well-managed exit.
A recent survey of likely Iowa caucusgoers found 64% in favor of the withdrawal of all American troops from Iraq within six months. Only 9% opposed that idea and 27% were undecided, according to a firm that polls for Republican candidates, Strategic Vision. Rapid withdrawal was nearly as popular among Iowa Republicans, 48% of whom supported the concept.

Another indication of how the debate over the war has shifted sharply to the left came last week as another Democratic contender, Thomas Vilsack, seemed to be on the verge of calling for mass civil disobedience against the war.

“I want to challenge every single one of you and ask a simple question: ‘What have you done today — what have you done today to end this war in Iraq?’ It needs to be ended now. Not six days from now. Not six months from now. Not six years from now. It needs to be ended now,” he declared with almost messianic urgency.

Mr. Vilsack left the presidential race two days later, but his calls for an immediate cutoff of funding for the war were striking, as he served recently as head of the Democratic Leadership Council, a centrist group once considered a home for hawkish Democrats.

“It was surprising coming from someone who had been chair of the DLC,” Mr. Lieberman said.

Mr. Biden has bent to some of the anti-war pressure. He opposes President Bush’s plan to surge troops in Iraq and is proposing to revoke the congressional resolution authorizing the war, replacing it with something more limiting. He has also proposed withdrawing American combat troops from Iraq by March 2008.

Mr. Biden acknowledged that some of his Senate colleagues believe it is a mistake for him to talk in detail about plans for Iraq, when the onus should be on the White House. “There are those in our caucus who say, ‘These guys have a problem, just let them swing out there,'” he said disapprovingly.

While Mr. Biden has spoken about staking his career on his prescription for Iraq, he conceded yesterday that his approach may not be well-calibrated for the primary campaign.

“I’ve thought more about what I would do as president than how to get to be the president,” he said. “I’ve got to start focusing on that second one a little bit more.”