Bloomberg’s Stance on Roberts Ratchets Up Pressure on Clinton
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Mayor Bloomberg’s decision to oppose President Bush’s nominee to the Supreme Court, Judge John Roberts Jr., will have an impact far beyond the mayoral race, significantly increasing the pressure on Senator Clinton and other Democratic senators to vote against the nominee, political analysts said yesterday.
“I think Bloomberg’s statement actually has a major effect here,” a Democratic political consultant deeply involved in Internet-based organizing, Joseph Trippi, said.
In a written statement issued on Friday, Mr. Bloomberg said he was opposing Judge Roberts because of fears that the nominee for chief justice might overturn the landmark abortion ruling, Roe v. Wade.
The rationale offered by the mayor puts Mrs. Clinton and other Democratic senators who appear to be considering a vote in favor of Judge Roberts in an awkward position. “If you’ve got Bloomberg, the Republican mayor of New York, saying that, I can’t see anybody who actually cares about Roe v. Wade thinking [Judge Roberts] isn’t too risky,” Mr. Trippi said. “You have a bank shot ricocheting, and it’s now making the safest route to oppose him.”
Another Democratic activist, Simon Rosenberg, also said Mr. Bloomberg’s surprise announcement is likely to alter Mrs. Clinton’s calculations on the vote. “That may be more important than anything else that happened on this,” Mr. Rosenberg, who heads the Washington-based New Democrat Network, said. “How does Hillary go to the right of Bloomberg?”
Since most analysts see the confirmation of Judge Roberts as virtually certain, for many Senate Democrats, the vote will be chiefly symbolic. For those considered possible presidential contenders in 2008, such as Mrs. Clinton, a vote to confirm the judge may be seen as a nod to moderates, while a vote against the nominee may be interpreted as a sign of allegiance to the Democratic Party’s liberal base.
An adviser to Mrs. Clinton, Howard Wolfson, denied yesterday that political considerations would play a part in the senator’s thinking. “She will make her decision on the merits,” the adviser said.
Mr. Wolfson also scoffed at the mayor’s public rejection of the nomination, calling it “so transparently political that I can’t imagine it having any impact on anyone, except to induce derisive laughter.”
Mr. Bloomberg’s action, which reportedly irritated White House aides, also puts him at odds with other GOP moderates who support both abortion rights and Judge Roberts, such as Governor Pataki and Mayor Giuliani. In July, when the judge was nominated to replace Justice O’Connor, who is retiring, Mr. Pataki issued a statement praising Judge Roberts as “highly experienced, qualified and accomplished,” the Times Union of Albany reported.
Mr. Giuliani, who knows Judge Roberts personally from his days in the Reagan administration, has called the judge “a remarkable candidate.” In an interview with Fox News in July, the former mayor said he was not concerned about the judge’s views on abortion. “That is not the critical factor,” he said.
One of the country’s most prominent Republicans to favor abortion rights, Governor Schwarzenegger of California, has yet to take a position on the nomination of Judge Roberts, a spokesman for the governor, Robert McAndrews, said yesterday.
In an interview yesterday, President Clinton said he wasn’t certain how his wife would vote on the pending nomination. “I have no idea what she’s going to do,” he told ABC’s “This Week” program.
“Judge Roberts is unquestionably qualified by intellect and character and background and by experience, but the next two appointments to the Supreme Court … can change the balance on a lot of important things,” Mr. Clinton said, adding, “I think the whole idea of the Roe v. Wade issue is a big issue.”
While Mrs. Clinton’s aides also insist that she has not indicated how she will vote, some liberal opponents of Judge Roberts are certain she will oppose him. “I cannot imagine at the end of the day she will vote to support his confirmation,” Nan Aron of the Alliance for Justice told Bloomberg News last month.
Mr. Trippi, who served as a campaign manager for the 2004 presidential bid of Dr. Howard Dean, said Mrs. Clinton must be concerned that if she supports Judge Roberts, he might quickly join court decisions that undermine abortion rights or otherwise anger large swaths of the Democratic electorate. The operative such a scenario would lead to anger, particularly from Web-based party activists who have been picking apart Judge Roberts’s record. “You’re going to have a lot of ‘splainin’ to do if you’re Hillary Clinton – and a lot of other Democrats,” the operative said. “The complicity with Bush in putting this guy there for a lifetime appointment will not be good for your career. You have to be terrified.”
Political analysts said another factor Mrs. Clinton may need to consider is what other Democratic presidential contenders may do. Senator Kerry of Massachusetts, the unsuccessful Democratic nominee in 2004, has been aggressively courting liberal activists and bloggers with an eye to another possible bid. He could stake his claim with the party’s left by opposing Judge Roberts. Senator Feingold of Wisconsin, who is the only senator to set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, might do the same.
Some observers this dynamic could benefit Mrs. Clinton, if she supports Judge Roberts, by helping her shed her liberal image. However, she would be subject to sharp criticism from liberal voices on the Web, who might not be quieted as quickly as civil rights groups who will need Mrs. Clinton’s support on other issues.
Mr. Trippi, who is credited with being among the first to recognize the value of online organizing, said less well-known candidates might not survive a swarm of critical bloggers, but Mrs. Clinton may have the star power to do so.
“She has I think the amazing ability to build an online activist community nationwide in her own right,” Mr. Trippi said. “How much the DailyKos, the Atrios, the existing community rallies to her matters less.”
Another key unknown at this juncture is who Mr. Bush will nominate to fill the other opening on the Supreme Court. The degree of confrontation over that nominee could render the debate and vote on Judge Roberts a mere diversion, or perhaps make it even more important.