CIA Predicts Al Qaeda ‘Succession Crisis’ After Bin Laden

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The New York Sun

WASHINGTON — America is making “a big and continual push” to capture or kill the leader of Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, but his demise won’t end the organization’s menace, the director of the CIA, Michael Hayden, said yesterday in an Associated Press interview.

The CIA is equally interested in those jockeying to replace Mr. bin Laden in what he predicted will be a “succession crisis.”

“It will be really interesting to see how that plays out. The organization is a lot more networked than it is ruthlessly hierarchical,” Mr. Hayden said of the group behind the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. “How do you pick the next overall leader?”

A number of Egyptians are now part of Al Qaeda’s top echelon and may struggle for power among themselves. Mr. Bin Laden’s current no. 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is an Egyptian.

Despite Al Qaeda’s resilience, taking out Mr. bin Laden would be a psychological blow to the organization, Mr. Hayden said.

“If there ever was a sense of invulnerability, I think killing or capturing him would shatter it once and for all,” he said.

Mr. Bin Laden is believed to be hiding in the lawless tribal areas of western Pakistan. The new Pakistani government is negotiating a new peace agreement with the tribes that would have them expel extremists and police the region on their own. Mr. Hayden said he believes the result will be similar to the last agreement Pakistan struck with the tribes — nothing is likely to change.


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