Doubts Raised Over McCain’s Viability
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Senator McCain’s weak second quarter fund-raising totals and the announcement that he is restructuring his campaign is leaving some wondering whether the once-favored Republican nominee will be in the race through the presidential election.
In a conference call with reporters yesterday, Mr. McCain’s senior staff said the Arizona senator raised $11.2 million in the last fund-raising period and that he had $2 million in cash left, an indication that he has burned through almost all of what he has taken in.
Demonstrating the seriousness of Mr. McCain’s financial situation, a senior political adviser, Terry Nelson, disclosed that he would be working for free for the next few months. The campaign also announced that it was “seriously considering” accepting public matching funds, a move that some political analysts said will put Mr. McCain at an immediate disadvantage in the primary elections.
Mr. Nelson also said the campaign would restructure all of its operations. While he did not confirm reports that 50 staffers would be let go, he did say senior staff members would take pay cuts.
“For all intents and purposes, it looks like a dying campaign,” the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Larry Sabato, said. “They insist otherwise, but very rarely does a campaign manage to overcome these kinds of continued setbacks.”
The nosedive in the public opinion polls and in fund raising is stunning turn of events for Mr. McCain, who a year ago was considered a favorite for the Republican nomination.
“The fact that you’re laying off people, the fact that after all of this you’ve only got $2 million in the bank indicates a pretty desperate situation,” a Republican strategist, David Winston, said. “I think part of the reason they are in this desperate situation is because the campaign has not been about John McCain, it’s been about how good the campaign is going to be.”
If Mr. McCain chooses to accept matching funds, he will be the first candidate from either party to do so. Mr. Nelson said the campaign — which will now focus on the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina — believes it would qualify for $6 million of those funds. The campaign also showed no sign it would back down, with top advisers saying the new strategy would better position Mr. McCain to win the nomination.
If the senator chooses to accept matching funds, his campaign must abide by spending limits in each state. Currently, the Federal Election Commission allows candidates who accept funds to spend $817,800 in New Hampshire and about $1.5 million in Iowa.
The president of the Club for Growth, Patrick Toomey, said a decision to accept public matching funds would be a political “white flag.”
“You can’t compete,” Mr. Toomey, who served as a Republican congressman from Pennsylvania between 1999 and 2005, said. “The other candidates will be able and willing to spend far more.”
A spokesman for the FEC, Robert Biersack, said the state limits are “quite flexible” because communications that include an appeal for fund raising can be deducted from national spending limits rather than state spending. Mr. Nelson and another senior adviser to Mr. McCain, John Weaver, attempted to paint the fund-raising woes as a result of the senator’s decision to stay true on his views rather than pander on issues such as political earmarks.
“That doesn’t always make us the favorite candidate of the special interests,” Mr. Nelson said. He said the campaign also had suffered among Republicans because of Mr. McCain’s support of the immigration bill, which was unpopular with party loyalists.
The adviser said the current fund-raising environment is particularly difficult for the Republican contenders. By comparison, Senator Obama of Illinois raised $32.5 million for this quarter, while Senator Clinton is said to have raised $27 million. John Edwards raised $9 million for the quarter. The other Republican candidates have not yet announced how much money they raised.
Part of Mr. McCain’s slide can be traced to his on again, off again alliance with President Bush. When the senator ran against Mr. Bush in 2000, his maverick style was a draw, but in the past few months he has appeared unsure about distancing himself from or aligning himself with the president.
Political observers are already speculating about who will poach Mr. McCain’s staff.
“The real question is where will McCain’s people go?” Mr. Sabato said. He added that he expects them to disperse among Mayor Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and a third likely candidate, Fred Thompson.
Others said it was too premature to write Mr. McCain off, noting that he still has stature and that with more than a year left until the election, anything can happen. Mr. Sabato said he thought Mr. McCain would stay in the race for as long as possible. “How long that is, I have no idea,” he said.