STUDY: TERROR WARNINGS BOOST PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS

SYRACUSE, N.Y. – When the government issues a terror warning, the president’s approval rating increases an average of nearly three points, a Cornell University sociologist says.

“The social theories predict it, and anecdotally we know it to be true. Now we have statistical science to confirm it,” said assistant director of Cornell’s Sociology and Small Groups Laboratory, Robb Willer.

On average, a terror warning prompted a 2.75 point increase in President George Bush’s approval rating the following week, said Mr. Willer, who published his study in Current Research in Social Psychology, a peer-reviewed online journal.

A professor of history and communication at Cazenovia College, Robert Greene, said he did not doubt the correlation, but considered the small increase barely noteworthy. “And I would think any benefit would be very temporary. Americans like crises to be solved,” Mr. Greene said.

Mr. Willer said he took up his study in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks after watching Mr. Bush’s approval rating soar from 51% on September 10 to 86% five days later.

Mr. Willer tracked the 26 times that a federal agency reported an increased threat of terrorist activity – not just changes in the alert level – between February 2001 and May 2004. He compared that with the 131 Gallup Polls conducted during the same period.

“From the perspective of social identity theory, threats of attacks from foreigners increase solidarity and in-group identification among Americans, including feelings of stronger solidarity with their leadership,” he said.

Terror warnings increased presidential approval ratings “consistently,” Mr. Willer said. However, he said he was unable to measure how long the increase lasted.

– Associated Press

CLINTON RALLIES JEWISH VOTERS TO END 2-DAY SWING THROUGH FLORIDA

BOCA RATON, Fla.- President Clinton reassured Jewish voters in a synagogue yesterday that as president, Senator Kerry would protect their interests in Israel by maintaining a record he established throughout his career in the Senate.

“These last four years have not only been difficult for America, they have been difficult for Israel,” Mr. Clinton said. “There is no doubt in my mind that his commitment to the security of Israel…would be unshakable.”

Mr. Clinton did not blame President Bush for increased violence in Israel but said a strong American leader was necessary to help that country again find “a partner for peace” among the Palestinians.

“This is an uncertain time for the Israelis because in 2000 they found they did not have a partner for peace, and then we had the intifadah and all of the violence,” he said.

With an estimated 500,000 Jewish voters, Florida is home to one of the nation’s largest Jewish communities. Most are concentrated in South Florida’s Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.

– Associated Press

APPEALS COURT REVERSES RULING ON PROVISIONAL BALLOTS IN MICHIGAN

LANSING, Mich. – A federal appeals court ruled yesterday that provisional ballots cast outside the precinct where a voter resides cannot be counted in Michigan.

The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reversed a lower court ruling that said provisional ballots should be counted as long as they are cast in the right city, township or village.

Provisional ballots – required in all states for the first time this year – are used when voters say they are properly registered but their names are not on the registration rolls. The ballots are later counted if elections officials determine the voter is validly registered.

The court noted that the Michigan case is similar to an Ohio case in which the same judges ruled that provisional ballots cast by Ohio voters outside their own precincts should not be counted.

The ruling is a defeat to Democrats and voter-rights group who sued Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land last month, arguing that federal election law says some provisional ballots cast in the wrong precinct should be counted. State officials had ordered that only provisional ballots cast in the correct precinct be counted.

– Associated Press