Giuliani Emerging for 2008

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

No mayor has ever risen directly to the presidency, but Mayor Giuliani is making a run at history as the Republican National Convention opens today.


While Republicans gather to renominate President Bush and invigorate their hold on the White House, several potential presidential hopefuls are already jockeying with an eye to the 2008 nomination.


Vice President Cheney is widely assumed to have neither the desire nor the health to seek the presidency, leaving the field tantalizingly open regardless of November’s results.


This week, major donors are arriving to inspect potential future candidates, sounding them out for ideology and talent. Party activists from early primary states are looking to be wooed and inspired to begin building the grassroots organizations that will be essential to mounting a credible bid for the presidency.


Democrats had barely finished their own Iowa caucuses earlier this year before the Republicans began coming through the state, which will be the first to evaluate the field.


“There have been Republicans coming to speak, under the guise that they are coming to help the president,” said a grassroots activist in Des Moines, Sandra Jaques.


And no one appears to be further ahead in the groundwork game than the former mayor who is at once an emblem of the convention’s host city, a national figure who forged his credentials leading the city out of the terror attacks of September 11th to national prominence, and a political centrist with bipartisan appeal.


Already this year, Mr. Giuliani has appeared in Iowa to speak to a group of businessmen in the capital. He gave a speech in eastern city of Cedar Rapids, the biggest television market in the state. His political action committee, dormant since his aborted senatorial race against Senator Clinton, suddenly registered new infusions of cash in June. And he shows every sign of continuing to lay the early groundwork at the convention this week, beginning with a prime-time speech this evening.


“If you really want to know who is serious, keep a close eye on the Iowa and New Hampshire delegations – who shows up to shmooze with them,” said the University of Virginia political science professor and race-watcher, Larry Sabato.


Mr. Giuliani was one of the first non-Iowans signed up by the Iowa delegation as a “special guest” to appear at their breakfast tomorrow.


“We definitely get the feeling he’s going to run,” said Ms. Jaques, who described herself as a “fan” of the former mayor.


“I think people will see support come to him because he has already been tested as a leader in a time of crisis,” she said.


When the chairman of the Linn County Republicans, Eric Rosenthal, polled his grassroots organizers about whom they wanted to have speak on caucus day this year, they asked for either the Secretary of State Colin Powell, the national security advisor Condoleezza Rice, or Mr. Giuliani.


When the former mayor arrived, 1,200 Iowans came out to see him on a frigid January day, and organizers had to remove the caucus registration tables from the hall to accommodate the crowd.


“It blew the lid off of our projections. People really poured out to see him,” said Mr. Rosenthal, who credited a “natural gratitude” to the former mayor across the political spectrum.


“He just drew all kinds of people. Maybe by 2008 that will have faded, but I don’t think the appreciation will fade for what he did in 9/11,” he said.


A former speechwriter for Mr. Bush and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, David Frum, said Mr. Giuliani “is probably in the strongest and best position of the people who might run.”


However, he is also at odds with the party membership with his support for abortion rights and gun control – positions he cannot easily reverse without hurting his image as a man of principle.


“A large part of his appeal is that he is not a man who changes his mind easily. It is going to be hard for him to reconcile himself with the party mainstream,” Mr. Frum said.


But Mr. Giuliani could bridge that gap, said Mr. Frum, by showing respect for the social conservatives, helping them advance other “life issues” such as opposition to human cloning and euthanasia, and by “making it clear that for his own reasons, such as judicial restraint, he would appoint the same kind of judges that pro-lifers would want.”


At this early stage, the most visible other 2008 contenders include another New Yorker, Governor Pataki, who has spent time in Iowa and is expected to spend more, according to the party chairman for Polk County, which includes the city of Des Moines, Ted Sporer.


“Pataki is going to be here quite a bit and I think that is significant,” said Mr. Sporer, who calls the governor “extremely underrated as a politician.” The governor will have a national platform when he addresses the convention in prime time on Thursday.


Another top name is Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, who rose to national prominence by spearheading the Olympic effort in Salt Lake City, and is already scheduled to headline the autumn dinner of the Iowa state Republican Party.


Mr. Romney was invited to speak, according to Mr. Sporer, because, “He is up and coming, a good speaker, and won in a really liberal state.”


“He is good at articulating the ‘this is crazy message’ – that Democrats think they can solve all problems by throwing more money at it. Romney is good at saying this doesn’t work,” Mr. Sporer said.


Also on many short lists is Governor Bill Owens of Colorado, who was named the nation’s best governor by the conservative National Review magazine. He appeared in Iowa for the caucuses, and has impressed Republicans around the country with his conservative policymaking. He is perceived to be “lining up money men,” according to Iowa observers.


That is what he will be doing on Wednesday when he appears at a “future stars forum” to be held on Wednesday by the Club for Growth, a group of high-powered fundraisers who will sound out potential candidates over their economic policies.


“We will hear from them see what they sound like, and just check them out,” said the club’s executive director, David Keating.


“What our members are interested in are people who know how to talk about Reagananomics – what we can do to help economic growth,” Mr. Keating said.


Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Senator Brownback of Kansas have also signed on to appear at the Club for Growth forum.


“We don’t have any favorites yet. But it’s not too early to hear from people, what their philosophies and achievements,” Mr. Keating said.


Mr. Owens will be facing off against a slate of Republican governors who also enjoy Republican-led legislatures and are facing four years to engage in a “virtuous competition” over policy, said an influential conservative activist, the head of Americans for Tax Reform, Grover Norquist.


“We have a series of governors who will compete on not just talking a good game but on actually accomplishing things in the next few years,” he said, noting Mr. Owens, as well as Governor Rick Perry of Texas, and Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota as examples.


“They will have to compete not on speeches, not on what they might accomplish, not on what they would do as president, but when I was governor of Colorado, Massachusetts, New York … here is what I’ve done, what you can judge me on,” he said.


But the list for 2008 does not end there. Enter the senators.


Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina has already been to Iowa, and met with a group of Iowa businessmen who flew in to Washington recently. Despite playing down suggestions that he is mulling a presidential run in 2008, he was quoted in the Des Moines Register already making campaign promises.


Asked by a local businessman about how his proposed private investment accounts for Social Security would be managed, Mr. Graham replied, “If I run for president, I’m for ethanol, and I’m for moving this new account to Des Moines.”


The majority leader in the Senate, Senator Frist of Tennessee, is also a natural contender, according to the Club for Growth’s Mr. Keating.


“It’s a logical spot. Bob Dole ran from that post. The person in that spot gets a lot of attention nationally and one of the battles is name identification. He is certainly somebody worth considering,” he said.


Senator Hatch of Utah has also been to Iowa, according to Republican organizers there.


Senator Hagel of Nebraska has openly stated that he is mulling throwing his hat in the ring. Senator Allen of Virginia is also mentioned as a contender.


But despite the Kerry-Edwards ticket’s demonstration to the contrary, senators are still believed to be a disadvantage in seeking the presidency.


“The challenge is for senators – is that you don’t pass anything. They can say I was part of X, but they can’t say I did X. For some of those guys, they may want to think about going back and being governor,” Mr. Norquist said.


Then there are the tantalizing ciphers: Senator McCain of Arizona, whose loyal supporters remain ag grieved at his failed bid in 2000, and who appeals to independent voters and is bent on continuing his effort to transform campaign finance laws.


“McCain is still popular among a certain group here. There are some people who were just devastated here in 2000 when he didn’t finish well,” said Mr. Rosenthal, the Iowa Republican.


Mr. McCain will speak to the convention in prime time this evening.


There is also the president’s brother, Jeb Bush, the governor of Florida, whose closest supporters remain mystified as to his plans.


“If there is anything to know about Jeb Bush, it’s that he is hard to read. He keeps his cards close to his chest,” said a political science professor at the University of South Florida, Susan Mac-Manus, who serves on Jeb Bush’s council of economic advisors.


Mr. Bush is not attending the convention and has not been to Iowa.


“He is playing it safe. He doesn’t want to create the imagery that there is a dynasty in the works because Americans aren’t too keen on royalty in politics,” she said.


Governor Bush’s wife, Columba, is said to be biding her time in the state capital of Tallahasee, looking forward to a return to Miami where her husband is expected to return to a business career. But such a return to private life could also be a springboard to a future campaign.


“It has been a mystery. I’ve heard him say he wants to get by the reelection of his brother before he talks about it,” said president of the Mallard Group, a Republican political consulting firm in Clearwater, Fla., Jack Hebert.


There is also the improbable California Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose Austrian nativity already has inspired Senator Hatch to introduce a bill to amend the constitution to allow a foreign-born citizen to run for president. The actor-turned-politician will give a prime time speech tomorrow.


Another wildcard is Condoleezza Rice, who benefits from a national profile and popularity, but faces the challenge of being a presidential adviser without the freedom to forge her own policies and has never been elected to anything, observers say.


The president of the White House Project, and group that seeks to elect a woman to the White, Marie Wilson, listed Senator Hutchison of Texas as the most likely woman to get in the race.


Senators Snowe and Collins of Maine are also among the top potential female candidates, she said. Governor Linda Lingle of Hawaii is one of only two Republican governors and will be urged to get in the race as well, she said.


The former head of the Environmental Protection Agency, and former New Jersey governor, Christine Todd Whitman, is also one to watch, said Ms. Wilson.


“I think she is somebody to always be aware of. She is not out of it,” she said.


The eventual slate of candidates could number a dozen, said Mr. Sabato.


“There is no one in line and Frist is not enough of a front-runner to deter think we have any sense of it. It is as wide open a contest as I’ve ever seen,” he said.


The New Hampshire delegation is scheduled to hear from Mr. Hagel, Senator Santorum, Mr. Pataki, Mr. Frist, Mr. McCain, and possibly Mr. Giuliani.


The chairwoman of the New Hampshire Republican Committee, Jayne Millerick, said men were invited as a “thank you” for their recent visits to the state to campaign for the president and to help build the party.


“Even for people who have future aspiration, the number one goal is helping the president,” she said.


Mr. Hagel has headlined a county dinner; Mr. Santorum took part in a grassroots “party building event” in March, Mr. Pataki rallied state Republicans on the weekend before the primary and has helped the state party raise money. Mr. Frist keynoted a state party dinner, and has campaigned with a local congressman. And Messrs. Romney and Giuliani have campaigned repeatedly in the state.


“People have a good excuse right now to come to early state and to help the president,” said New Hampshire’s national committeeman, Thomas Rath. While promoting the president, he said, “they can make an impression on people, get names for their rolodexes and form relationships. Everyone has to start somewhere.”


When Mr. Giuliani came to do an event a few days before the primary, Mr. Rath said he was received like a “rock star.”


“I was surprised at how easily the tickets sold, and it impressed me how many people bought his book and wanted him to sign it,” he said.


“When he tells the story of that day, it’s powerful stuff,” he said, referring to September 11, 2001.


Mr. Pataki has also impressed state organizers with his help “at all levels” of party building and fundraising, he said.


But Mr. McCain leads the Granite State.


“If John McCain was in the field, today he’d be the favorite. He still has a genuine, deep and loyal following in New Hampshire – if he runs,” Mr. Rath said.


The New York Sun

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