WASHINGTON – President Bush and his Democratic opponents are fanning across the country in competing campaign-style road shows in an effort to win over Americans in the Social Security debate, during what some analysts say could be a decisive period for the president’s proposals for private accounts.

The president, Vice President Cheney, and senior administration officials yesterday kicked off a planned two-month nationwide tour to promote the administration’s proposed personal savings accounts in speeches, town hall meetings, and press conferences.

In a counter offensive, Senators Clinton and Schumer, as well as Senator Kerry of Massachusetts, are scheduled to headline a four-city tour with congressional Democrats that begins today with a 10 a.m. forum at Michael Schimmel Center for the Arts at Pace University’s Lower Manhattan campus.

The Democrats also plan to travel to Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Las Vegas to denounce the proposal, while the president heads today to New Jersey and Indiana. “This ball game is just getting under way,” the White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, said yesterday of the massive ground war on both sides.

The policy cavalcade comes at a crucial moment for the president’s proposals, analysts say. Recent opinion polls suggest Americans increasingly believe the Social Security system is in financial trouble but remain unconvinced of the merits of the president’s proposal. And with support in Congress uncertain, Mr. Bush has an opportunity to create momentum behind his ambitious proposal, or watch it fizzle out.

Republican leaders were quoted this week speculating that the proposal may not come to a vote this year. Yesterday, they scrambled to clarify their comments.

“We need to do it this year. Not next year, but this year,” Senate Majority Leader Frist of Tennessee, said in a floor speech yesterday.

The chairman of the Finance Committee, Senator Grassley of Iowa, suggested this week that reforms ought to focus on the solvency of the system, rather than on the president’s proposed private accounts. But yesterday, he issued a statement stressing his support for accounts and calling for quick action on the issue.

Groups on both sides of the issue are working overtime to mobilize ordinary Americans to call their representatives in Congress and express their views. Similar to an election campaign, they are ginning up thousands of letters to editors of community newspapers and calls to local radio talk shows.

“Obviously, when the president comes into a community, it’s big news. We have to be out there talking about the president’s plan – that it means benefit cuts and exploding the deficit,” said the manager of the AFL-CIO’s Social Security campaign, Suzanne Granville. She could not put a number on how much unions would spend in the coming weeks to fight the plan, but she said unions would be sending members to town hall meetings and lobbying member of Congress.

A pro-accounts coalition of business groups, the Coalition for the Modernization and Protection of America’s Social Security, has talked about spending $15 to $20 million on their effort to promote the accounts.

“There is definitely a sense of urgency,” said a spokesman for the group, Michael Tuffin.

Activists plan to repeat an effort that targeted members of Congress when they went home during a February recess. The mobilized 3,000 supporters to attend 50 town hall meetings, make 200 calls to radio talk shows, and send dozens of letters to local editors, Mr. Tuffin said.

Similarly, the seniors lobbying group AARP, which vehemently opposes the accounts, will also continue a far-reaching campaign.

“We’re going to stick to our agenda and be very aggressive about it,” said AARP’s communication director, Lisa Davis. Group members have directed 300,000 calls or e-mail messages to members of Congress since January, and they have sent information to 22 million households, she said.

Ms. Davis could not put a number on their activities, but said the group spent $5 million on print advertising in the month of January.

“We will be spending millions, but it’s hard to say,” she said.

For now, it appears the plan’s opponents have the upper hand. One political analyst said he could not envision the proposal garnering sufficient votes in the Senate for passage.

“In a nutshell, the Bush proposal isn’t dead, but it’s on life support,” said Gregory Valliere, the chief strategist at Stanford Washington Research Group, which provides nonpartisan analysis to institutional investors.

“Democrats think this is their payback for how Hillary’s health-care plan was treated,” he said, referring to a proposal for a health-care plan championed by New York’s junior senator while she was first lady, which was defeated by Republicans.

The uncertainty about Senate votes makes Republicans who are facing reelection to the House of Representatives uneasy about supporting anything that could add to the national deficit, he said.

“With the exception of whispering that Lieberman or Blanche Lincoln might listen to compromise, the big story has been how unified the Democrats are and how divided the Republicans are,” said Mr. Valliere, referring to speculation that the Democratic senators from Connecticut and Arkansas might support the president’s plan.

A spokesman for Mr. Frist, Bob Stevenson, countered that the chances of passing a bill this year are “very realistic,” despite an apparent lack of the needed 60 votes in the Senate to defeat a likely Democratic filibuster.

“I think everybody recognizes that in order to get it done, it’s going to take some Democratic support,” he said.

But a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute who is affiliated with the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, Marshall Wittmann, said he did not see “any” support among Democrats for personal accounts carved out of Social Security taxes. He said the idea of accounts could survive in a different form, such as an add-on to Social Security, an idea supported by the AARP.

“I don’t think the president is going to walk away from this debate with empty hands,” Mr. Wittmann said.

The Secretary of the Treasury, John Snow, said the administration is open to the idea of add-on accounts, but the White House has signaled that is not so. Many pro-account groups are deeply opposed to the idea, arguing that many people could not afford to set aside money on top of paying their Social Security taxes.

The White House spokesman, Mr. McClellan, said the administration is not worried about the state of play of the proposal. “Just think, a few weeks ago, many people were denying that there was even a problem. Now everybody is talking about solutions,” he said. “That’s a positive sign.”