Insiders Forecast Clinton, McCain As 2008 Nominees

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National Journal’s well-regarded survey of Washington insiders shows that nearly 69% believe that Senator Clinton, a Democrat of New York, will be the Democratic nominee, while 73% believe that Senator McCain, a Republican of Arizona, will be the Republican nominee.

Notably, Republicans believe that Mrs. Clinton is a much stronger candidate than the Democrats give her credit for. More than half of Republicans say she is the strongest candidate. But only a quarter of Democrats believe the same of her. Both Republicans and Democrats agree that Senator Obama, a Democrat of Illinois, is the second strongest.

More than half of Republicans, meanwhile, believe that Mr. McCain is the strongest candidate, while 70% of Democrats do. Republicans believe that Governor Romney, a Republican of Massachusetts, is the second strongest, but Democrats say that a former New York mayor, Rudolph Giuliani, is no. 2.

The 2008 election could yield the first female (Mrs. Clinton), black (Mr. Obama), or Mormon (Mr. Romney) president. The insiders did not believe, generally, that religion or gender would hurt or help the candidates. But nearly half of Democrats and 40% of Republicans believed that Mr. Obama’s race could hurt him in the campaign.


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