In 2002, White House strategist Karl Rove referred to Minnesota as the “Holy Grail.” At the time, the state seemed well within the GOP’s grasp. On the heels of a funeral for Senator Wellstone, a Democrat, that many believed had turned into a tasteless pep rally, Republicans enjoyed a wildly successful year. Governor Pawlenty was elected by an eight-point margin in a three-way race; Senator Coleman beat last-minute replacement candidate Walter Mondale.

In 2004, Republicans dreamed of victory for President Bush in Minnesota, putting considerable resources there. But his opponent, Senator Kerry, won that state.

Now, the 2002 Republican success is looking like a fluke. Rep. Mark Kennedy got thrashed in this year’s Senate race; Mr. Pawlenty held onto the governor’s mansion by the skin of his teeth. The GOP lost three other statewide offices and the majority in the state House. A Democrat won Mr. Kennedy’s old House seat. And Republicans reported far fewer welcoming faces when they knocked on doors.

Mr. Pawlenty is one of the more intriguing names for the Republican ticket in the past few years. At the 2004 GOP convention, he was one of a handful of rising stars having sit-down meetings with the conservative press, cultivating the seeds of “Hey, this guy might make a good president someday” columns. During his first term, Mr. Pawlenty made trips to Bosnia, Kosovo, Poland, Iraq, and the Czech Republic; visited soldiers from Minnesota, and led a delegation to China in 2005, encouraging investment in his state. He also welcomed President Fox of Mexico in 2004, and a year later, Mexico opened a new consulate in St. Paul.

Mr. Pawlenty’s presidential buzz was silenced by his political near-death experience this year. Despite the St. Paul Pioneer Press declaring: “Gov. Tim Pawlenty was a Republican rock that withstood a Democratic tidal wave washing across the state and nation Tuesday,” talk of his presidential aspirations abruptly ended.

In the meantime, the Republicans committed to holding their 2008 convention in St. Paul. The early contours of the GOP’s 2008 strategy suggest that it wants to win over the remaining blue parts of the Upper Midwest — Minnesota, Wisconsin, and maybe Michigan — the way it grabbed Iowa and expanded its hold on Missouri in 2004.

Earlier this month, National Review Online reported that Mr. Pawlenty will support Senator McCain’s bid for the White House and is actively engaged in the senator’s exploratory committee. Though no evidence exists that the Minnesota governor’s early support represents a pitch to get on a McCain-Pawlenty ticket, it’s hard to believe the thought hasn’t crossed either man’s mind.

In the final week of the November election, Mr. McCain made several appearances with Mr. Pawlenty and his words of praise would suggest the Arizona senator sees in the governor a potential future vice president.”I know of no one who will make a greater contribution to the future of America than this great leader,” Mr. McCain said at one stop.”This is the kind of leadership that I’d like to pass the torch to.”

Presuming that Mr. McCain wins the nomination and doesn’t want to pick any of his rivals from the primary, potential running mates from the Republican gubernatorial ranks are thin on the ground.

This year’s elections eviscerated the GOP’s supply of governors. In Maryland, Governor Ehrlich’s term is likely to be deemed a historical accident. Governor Taft is loathed in his home state of Ohio, where Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell was roundly defeated in his bid to become governor. And Governor Schwarzenegger, who may have the most impressive election performance of all the Republican governors, would require an amendment to the Constitution to qualify as a running mate.

The year 2006 provided such a poor environment for Republican issues that Governor Daniels of Indiana — the former White House budget director — has run into trouble with his constituents over a change in policy on daylight-saving time, and his unpopularity was cited as a factor in the Republicans’ loss of three House seats in his state.

Meanwhile, Democrats are in much better shape. The red states of Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, West Virginia, Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, and Oklahoma are either enjoying a second term of a Democratic governor or a second consecutive Democratic governor. All these would constitute plausible running mates for Senators Clinton or Obama.

There is, of course, some considerable doubt whether a running mate can put a state in play. With Senator Edwards on the Democratic ticket, Mr. Bush’s margin of victory in North Carolina imperceptibly shrank from 13 points in 2000 to 12 points in 2004. Vice President Gore famously lost his home state of Tennessee in the 2000 presidential race, and Jack Kemp had little effect on Senator Dole’s numbers in New York and California in 1996. If Mr. Pawlenty were to run alongside Mr. McCain, the “Holy Grail” Karl Rove was looking for in Minnesota may turn out to be as elusive as the genuine article.