Obama Proposes Retreat in Iraq

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Senator Obama of Illinois, who is pondering a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, is urging that a “substantial” number of American troops be withdrawn from Iraq in the next four to six months and that some economic aid to Iraq be cut off if its leaders do not come to a peaceful settlement of their political differences.

“I believe it remains possible to salvage an acceptable outcome to this long and misguided war, but I have to be honest today, it will not be easy,” Mr. Obama said in a speech yesterday to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. “For the fact is, there are no good options left in this war.”

Mr. Obama’s critique of the war and his prescription for dealing with it were not significantly different from those he has offered before, nor were they wildly at odds with suggestions made by other Democrats. Yet every speech the senator gives about Iraq underscores the fact that he opposed the war from the outset, unlike other presidential contenders, including the putative Democratic front-runner, Senator Clinton.

Mr. Obama suggested yesterday that the war in Iraq and President Bush’s refusal to engage in direct talks with Iran and North Korea were strategic blunders that may have prompted the latter two countries to accelerate their nuclear programs.

“Ultimately, I think the administration’s rationale for not talking to Iran or North Korea had to do with, in the back of the mind, the thinking that at some point we may try to overthrow those regimes militarily,” the senator said in response to a question from the audience, before adding quickly that he was unaware of any plans for such an assault. “The administration has gone out of its way to let the Iranians and the North Koreans at least think that, ‘What happened in Iraq might happen to you as well.’ In such an environment, it is hard to imagine a better formula for them wanting to seek nuclear weapons as quickly as possible.”

Mr. Obama called for direct talks between America and Iraq’s neighbors, including Iran and Syria. “Iran is by far the biggest beneficiary thus far of our invasion in Iraq,” the senator said. “They can watch us flail about and really not put any cards on the table.”

Mr. Obama said the announcement of a “phased redeployment” of American troops in Iraq would send Iran the message that “you will not enjoy a million refugees pouring over your borders in the event Iraq collapsed.”

Still, the senator urged caution in discussions with Iraq and Syria, describing them as countries that “want us to fail.” He did not make reference to reports that President Talabani of Iraq will meet directly in the coming days with the presidents of Iran and Syria.

Mr. Obama said he was skeptical of suggestions by Senator McCain, a Republican of Arizona, that America may need to send more troops to Iraq to quell the violence there.”Without a coherent strategy or better cooperation from the Iraqis, we would only be putting more of our soldiers in the crossfire of a civil war.”

Republican lawmakers also favor changes in Iraq policy, Mr. Obama said, but many kept that sentiment bottled up in advance of this month’s congressional election. “The last election can be liberating for the Republicans,” Mr. Obama said. “There has been this absolute insistence on toeing the party line that has muffled effective dissent and questions within the party. … I think that you’re going to see a bipartisan push on the administration to change course.”

Mr. Obama said a “phased redeployment” was the best way to prod the Iraqis to make political compromises. He also said America should be willing to suspend the withdrawal if Iraqis “reach an effective political arrangement” and can make a compelling case for keeping American troops in place.

One obstacle Mr. Obama faces if he attempts a run for the White House is a relative lack of experience in the foreign policy arena. A former Illinois state lawmaker, he has been in the Senate for only two years, though he sits on the Foreign Relations Committee.

In an interview yesterday, Mr. Obama said experience does not guarantee good results. “The important thing is not experience, per se,” the senator told CNN. “Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney had the best résumés in Washington and initiated a fiasco in Iraq. But rather, does someone have the judgment necessary to learn from experience and make good decisions? And that is something that, generally, I’ve been able to do.”

Mr. Obama brushed aside a question asking him to compare his talents to those of Mrs. Clinton. He told CNN he will decide soon whether to seek the White House, but added, “I’m not in an enormous rush.”


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