‘Pall-Like Silence’ Fell <br>Over America’s Economy <br>When Bernanke Went to Bat
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The failure of the Federal Reserve reminds me of “Casey at the Bat.” What poet Ernest Thayer called “a pall-like silence” had fallen over our economy when the mighty Ben Bernanke strode up to the plate and gave us quantitative easing.
It was supposed to hurry along the economic recovery. Try convincing the average American worker that it did. If someone is benefitting from the Fed’s efforts, it’s not the common man.
Sure, the rate of job layoffs has fallen. Last week the Department of Labor reported that the four-week average for first time filings of unemployment benefits fell to just over 265,000, a 15 year low.
Layoffs, though, are only one side of the job equation — new hires are the other. While the number of new jobs has averaged more than 200,000 for the past couple of years, that rate barely keeps up with the growth in population.
While the drain on jobs has bottomed, new jobs are merely keeping up with the growing demand. Effectively, if an unemployed worker finds a job, a new entrant to the labor force becomes unemployed. Don’t bother to break out the champagne. Wages haven’t been a source of joy either. They are barely keeping up with inflation, so the average worker is lucky if his paycheck stretches as far each week.
There has been positive news. Gasoline prices fell to about $2.15 a gallon in February from just under $3.80 a gallon in June. That 40 percent drop was supposed to fatten consumers’ wallets, put a smile on their faces, and encourage more trips to the mall. But guess what. That didn’t happen.
Since June a year ago, retail sales, including trips to the food court, are up less than a four percent annual rate. They were flat in April. To make matters worse, gas prices have jumped back to around $2.80 a gallon. So much for the good time.
Therefore it came as no great surprise when Bloomberg reported on Thursday that its Consumer Comfort Index dropped by 6 points, the biggest drop in a year and a half. Thirty-nine percent of those surveyed said the economy is actually getting worse. Those making less than $50,000 were the least upbeat in five months.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. The Federal Reserve insisted its monetary policy course would bring prosperity to all. Yet $3.5 trillion later, and with interest rates stuck at record lows, Americans are still waiting for their share of the extra bounty.
The Federal Reserve may be confident or hopeful enough to leave its policy unchanged each month. Meanwhile, Middle Americans are left to juggle their stagnant paychecks each month to make ends meet.
Economists regularly chatter about the Fed being in “uncharted waters.” A term not heard thirty or forty years ago. That’s because the waters were well charted by a couple of hundred years of experience with sound currency. No one heard about “quantitative easing” as a remedy for President Carter’s infamous malaise.
Today, supply siders, of which I am one, still talk about cutting taxes and reducing regulations as the answer to the current economic malaise. What all too many of us have failed to take into account is the one significant difference between the JFK tax cuts that spurred strong economic growth in the 1960’s and the Reagan economic growth era. It is the wave of fiat currency manipulation through which the Fed is now attempting, without success, to spur growth.
Today Fed policy is eating away at the value of our money, the savings of seniors, and the ability of Americans to follow that tried and true system of saving and building wealth through frugality and thrift and enterprise The Federal Reserve believes it is on the right track. Many Americans feel their economic wheels coming off. In short, America is losing confidence in their monetary leaders: To reinterpret Thayer’s poem:
Oh, somewhere in this favored land the people are better off,
They take vacations, fly by air, enjoy a round of golf;
And somewhere people are laughing as they go around about,
But there is no joy on Main Street – the mighty Bernanke has struck out.
Mr. Lonegan is director of monetary policy for the American Principles Project.