A Shift in Political Landscape Seems To Favor McCain in ’08
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Senator McCain of Arizona is emerging as an early favorite for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 as a result of a shift in the issues dominating the American political landscape, according to political analysts.
Intensifying public concern about the war in Iraq, the prospect of protracted corruption trials in Washington, and renewed qualms among Republicans about federal spending are all putting wind into Mr. McCain’s sails while setting back most of the senator’s rivals for the nomination.
“If Iraq and foreign policy and national security and deficit spending are important issues, that will benefit people like McCain,” the publisher of a leading political newsletter, Stuart Rothenberg, said.
A Republican political consultant with national campaign experience said looming decisions about when and how to withdraw American troops from Iraq should boost the prospects of Mr. McCain, a former Navy pilot who spent more than five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. The senator has vocally opposed calls for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, but he has also clashed with the White House over a measure he sponsored to prohibit Americans from engaging in torture.
A former aide to the senator, Marshall Wittmann, also said he believes the stars are aligning for a McCain candidacy.
“My sense is there’s a significant amount of momentum shifting to Mc-Cain within the Republican Party over the past few months,” said Mr. Wittmann, who served as the senator’s communications director for two years before quitting last year to join the centrist Democratic Leadership Council.
Observers inside and outside the Re publican Party have said that the party has fallen into disarray in recent months after a strong showing in last year’s elections. Despite comfortable majorities in both houses of Congress, party leaders have faced problems passing basic budget legislation. Even Republican stalwarts conceded that the GOP’s showing in state elections this year was poor. And President Bush’s approval ratings are at an all-time low, due in large part to worries about Iraq.
“The party is in a crisis at the moment,” Mr. Wittmann said. “I think the party is increasingly looking for a leader who has popularity and can broaden the party.”
Still, not all of Washington’s political prognosticators are convinced that Mr. McCain has what it takes to win over the GOP primary electorate, which is far more conservative than the general public. “Conservatives hate him,” a political analyst, Charles Cook told reporters recently.
Mr. McCain has riled some on the political right with his votes against tax cuts and his steadfast support for further federal regulation of money in politics. He also has quarreled publicly with some leaders of the religious right, such as the Reverends Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson.
Earlier this month, a popular conservative radio host, Rush Limbaugh, denounced Mr. McCain as a “Republican in Name Only,” or Rino. “They used to be called ‘Rockefeller Republicans.’ It may be better to start calling them ‘McCain Republicans,’ the McCain wing of the party,” the radio host said disdainfully as he skewered GOP lawmakers such as Mr. McCain who oppose drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Mr. Rothenberg noted that Mr. McCain agrees with social conservatives on many hot-button issues, although he rarely talks about those subjects in public.
“Abortion, guns, gay marriage, home schooling – McCain may be right on some of those issues, but they’re not at the top of his agenda,” Mr. Rothenberg said. He said candidates hoping to win the Republican caucuses and primaries don’t have to toe the line on all such issues but “have to pass some sort of minimal litmus test.”
Mr. McCain’s reputation as a reformer could be a boon as Washington grapples with high-profile criminal trials stemming from the CIA leak inquiry and a broad probe of corruption by lobbyists.The senator also has been making friends by working closely with fiscally conservative House members in an effort to cut pork from the federal budget.
One open question is whether voter in the presidential race might have qualms about Mr. McCain’s age. If he wins, he would be 72 when he takes office.
Much of Mr. McCain’s electoral future will be influenced by the performances of others who may enter the presidential race, both Republicans and Democrats. Polls show he may be the only GOP candidate who could defeat Senator Clinton if she is the Democratic nominee in 2008.
“Some of this depends on how desperate Republicans are to win and to stop Hillary Clinton. If it looks like John McCain is the guy to stop Hillary Clinton, suddenly he looks a lot stronger,” Mr. Rothenberg said.
Some allies of Mayor Giuliani, another potential Republican candidate in 2008, believe that he may stand to gain even more from a renewed focus on Iraq and the perception that the cultural issues deemed so critical to the outcome of the 2004 race could be shifting to the back burner.
There are even some indications that the religious right might consider Mr. Giuliani more palatable than Mr. McCain. Earlier this year, one of America’s best-known Christian conservatives, Rev. Robertson, said the former mayor “would make a good president.”
During the same ABC interview, Rev. Robertson made clear he has no affection for Mr. McCain. “McCain I’d vote against under any circumstance,” the “700 Club” host said.
Mr. Giuliani leads Mr. McCain in many early opinion polls of Republican and independent voters, but many analysts contend that the former mayor’s support for abortion rights renders him all but unelectable in the GOP contest.
Some Republicans are touting Senator Allen of Virginia as a candidate who can generate enthusiasm among social conservatives while also winning over moderate voters. Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts could also have the same crossover appeal.
However, it’s unclear if those two men will be seen as sufficiently expert on national security matters, especially if Iraq remains at the forefront of Americans’ concerns.
While some may shudder at the prospect of discussing the 2008 race three years before the general election, political insiders said the potential candidates are already jockeying to sign up key staffers.
Mr. McCain has tapped a former adviser to Mr. Bush, Mark MacKinnon, as an advertising consultant. The move was a rebuff to Michael Murphy, who ran the senator’s 2000 campaign, but has also advised Mr. Romney.
Earlier this year, Mr. Allen hired Richard Wadhams, a consultant who helped Senator Thune defeat the former Senate majority leader, Tom Daschle in 2004.