Time Is Now for Political Pros To Pick Sides for 2008 Race

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Most voters have more than a year to make up their minds about whom to support in the 2008 presidential race, but for an elite group of political advisers, advertising consultants, and fundraisers, the time to choose sides is nigh.

With a broad field of potential candidates emerging for the Republican and Democratic nominations, some key players are facing dilemmas created by past ties to more than one candidate.

With Senator Clinton seen as all but certain to run and the odds-on favorite for the nomination, Democratic operatives have little incentive to alienate her machine by publicly aligning themselves with a prospect who might choose not to join the race.

“There are a lot of people just trying to wait,” a veteran Democratic campaign consultant, Joseph Trippi, said. “You’re basically buying a lottery ticket.”

A former political director for President Clinton, Minyon Moore, is among those with divided loyalties. Her White House years built an allegiance to Mrs. Clinton, but Ms. Moore, a Chicago native, also describes herself as a “close personal friend” of a man who could be Mrs. Clinton’s strongest rival for the Democratic nomination, Senator Obama of Illinois.

“It’s safe to say I’m a huge, huge, huge fan of them both,” Ms. Moore said. “The good news is neither one of them are announced candidates.”

Asked what she’ll do if both enter the race, Ms. Moore said, “I’ll make my own decision based on what I’d like to see for the country.”

On the Republican side, the decisions are somewhat less painful, in part because there is no overwhelming front-runner. The most-discussed predicament among Republican consultants is that of a California-based advertising adviser, Mike Murphy. He has helped both Senator McCain of Arizona and Governor Romney of Massachusetts in past campaigns.

Mr. Murphy, who did not respond to messages seeking comment for this article, told The New York Sun last year that he would sit out the 2008 primary race if both Messrs. McCain and Romney run.

Mr. Trippi, who ran Howard Dean’s presidential bid in 2004, said helping a White House contender is not always a boost to a consultant’s bottom line, at least in the short term. “You basically take yourself completely out of play with the majority of Senate and gubernatorial candidates,” Mr. Trippi said. “On the merits, most sane people wouldn’t do it.”

Consultants debating what to do for 2008 also consider where they would have the most impact. Mrs. Clinton’s key advisers, such as her pollster, Mark Penn, and her communications advisers, Ann Lewis and Howard Wolfson, have been in place for years. “That bus is full,” one Democratic operative said.

On the other hand, lesser-known candidates would gladly take advice from experienced players who might not have the heft to land a seat at the Clinton table. “The Hillary campaign is the Fortune 50 corporation, but there are plenty of start-ups out there,” a former Clinton White House staffer said.

On the Democratic side, several subplots are under way. One open question is what will become of those who were advising a former Virginia governor, Mark Warner, who surprised many of his aides by bowing out of the presidential contest last month. A former Democratic Senate Campaign Committee director who oversaw the early months of Senator Kerry’s 2004 campaign, James Jordan, was on the Warner bandwagon until it came to an unexpected halt. An advertising consultant, James Margolis, and a former aide to Vice President Gore, Monica Dixon, were also on board with Mr. Warner and have yet to make clear their plans.

One strategic adviser to Mr. Warner, Douglas Sosnik, has a political pedigree that still poses complications for 2008. Mr. Sosnik, who was one of Mr. Clinton’s closest political advisers at the White House and has remained close with the former president, started out in politics as a driver for Christopher Dodd during his 1980 campaign for the Senate from Connecticut. Senator Dodd is among the Democrats considering running for president in 2008. Mr. Sosnik did not respond to an e-mail inquiring about his plans.

Mr. Obama’s possible entry in the presidential contest also raises questions about the allegiances of advisers to other potential White House hopefuls, such as Senator Bayh of Indiana. One of Mr. Bayh’s key advisers, Anita Dunn, helped run Mr. Obama’s political action committee this year. She told the Sun on Wednesday that her work with the Illinois senator has come to an end and she is firmly in Mr. Bayh’s camp should he run for president. “I certainly hope to be involved in that operation,” Ms. Dunn said, adding that she does not know whether Mr. Bayh will ultimately run.

While Mr. Obama roiled the field a bit by agreeing to consider a White House bid after having ruled it out earlier in the year, a decision by Mr. Gore to enter the race would cause upheaval. Nearly all of Mr. Gore’s allies are or were somewhere in the Clinton orbit and would face an awkward choice.

Some of those deeply involved in the campaign of Mr. Kerry have yet to cast their lot publicly for 2008. The Massachusetts senator is considering running again, though many Democrats oppose that idea. One of the most closely watched of the former Kerry aides is a renowned field organizer credited with the senator’s win in the Iowa caucuses, Michael Whouley. He did not return a call seeking comment for this article.

A former Chicago alderman who served as a deputy finance chairman for Mr. Kerry in 2004, William Singer, has agreed to be a top fund-raiser for Senator Biden for 2008, another active fund-raiser said. Mr. Singer, an attorney at Kirkland & Ellis, did not reply to an-email message yesterday seeking comment.

Another Democratic candidate considering a re-run in 2008, John Edwards, had several top advisers in 2004 who were Clinton administration veterans. Last time, their support for Mr. Edwards was no snub to the Clintons, but it might be seen that way with Mrs. Clinton in the field. Most of the key Edwards players are expected to return if the former senator from North Carolina runs again, though a press adviser, Chicago-based advertising and message consultant, David Axelrod, is now in Mr. Obama’s camp.

A White House bid by Mayor Bloomberg also would spawn conflicts for several advisers. Mrs. Clinton’s pollster, Mr. Penn, has worked for Mr. Bloomberg. A political consultant for Mr. Bloomberg, David Garth, spent many years advising Mayor Giuliani, who is actively exploring a presidential bid. And a Republican pollster, Frank Luntz, also worked for both mayors.

Mr. Bloomberg has repeatedly ruled out a White House race, but some of his advisers and backers are still urging him to consider running as an independent.


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