U.S. Market Recovers by Day’s End

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The New York Sun

The bombings yesterday in London were a gutshot to European and American financial markets, but should not cause any lasting damage once traders catch their collective breaths.


In contrast to the massive terror attacks of September 11, 2001, in New York, which closed American stock markets, the London Stock Exchange stayed open yesterday, as did bourses on the continent. Financial payment systems were not disrupted despite the blasts which left at least 37 dead and more than 700 injured.


Still, losses in Europe were substantial, even after stocks rose from their midday lows. At the end of trading in London yesterday, the FTSE 100 share index was down just 1.4%. It had been down as much as 3%. Other major European exchanges, such as those in Frankfurt, Paris, and Madrid were all down between 1% and 2%.


In America, where markets stayed open five hours after London’s close, the recovery was complete and stocks wound up slightly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 100 points as traders weighed the news. But it finished 31.61 points higher than yesterday at 10,302.29. The Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 2.91 to 1,197.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 7.01 points to 2075.66.


The British pound fell against the dollar, but by less than 1%. The dollar fell against the euro.


The losses yesterday are in sharp contrast to the aftermath of September 11, 2001, when the Dow fell by 7% on the first day the American exchanges reopened. London shares fell about 2% after the Madrid bombings on March 11, 2004. Even after the 2001 attacks, the Dow and other American markets took just two months to regain pre-terror levels, and market watchers expect an even speedier recovery in this case.


“I wouldn’t expect [markets] to be down hugely,” said Stephen Leeb, president of Leeb Capital Management, a New York-based asset management firm. “Even after 9/11, there was a recovery” before the market started selling off for unrelated reasons in the second half of 2002. “It’s tragic and horrible, but investors tend to be very cold-blooded,” Mr. Leeb said.


As is the pattern in response to terror attacks, travel and leisure shares were among the hardest hit. In London, British Airways shares fell by 4.2%, and the Hilton Group, which has interests in hotels, health clubs, and gambling, fell by 3.27%. Liquor giant Diageo slid 4%.


Among American companies, Walt Disney fell by 1.37% and Delta Air Lines fell by 2.87% on concerns about European and international travel.


In New York Mercantile Exchange trading, oil prices, up more than 50% from a year ago, dropped nearly $4 a barrel overnight on concerns of a widespread economic slowdown. But they, too, rebounded and wound up down just 53 cents on the day as traders focused less on the day’s news and more on underlying values.


Gold prices also rose initially in New York trading to $428.50 a troy ounce, as investors flocked to the precious metal, often considered a safe haven in times of distress. But prices fell back to about $424, ending slightly lower on the day.


Reacting to share price declines in Europe, Peter Schiff, chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital, a Connecticut based financial adviser that invests primarily in overseas markets, said: “I think it’s more of an excuse to sell. I really don’t see how in the scheme of things [the bombings] do anything to change the fundamentals.”


One economist for a Swiss banking giant, whose company policy requires anonymity, agreed, but noted that there are already worries about Britain’s financial strength, which is reflected by a weakening pound. That currency fell to an 18-month low against the dollar yesterday.


Along with travel-related companies, insurers could suffer less momentary losses. Shares in British insurers Royal & Sun Alliance and Aviva both fell by close to 2%, slightly more than British shares overall. Paris-based insurer AXA was down 1.59% in New York Stock Exchange trading. In days ahead, investors will likely try to gain more specific information about insurer portfolios before making their bets in this area, said a senior portfolio manager for AIM Capital Management, Jason Holzer, who specializes in European companies.


As to the wider market, the London attacks “might not have much impact in the medium and long term,” Mr. Holzer said. “The experience we’ve had shows the markets are pretty resilient.”


But Mr. Holzer, like other money managers, hedged his predictions. If the London bombings are a one-time event, look for the markets to recover quickly, he said. But if other attacks follow, the effect on consumer confidence and on investors and their appetite for risk would likely widen.


The New York Sun

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