Prime Minister Netanyahu’s leadership of Israel is in serious peril for the first time since October 7, 2023, as his Orthodox coalition partners in parties known as Haredi threaten to force a new election.

At issue is an anomaly that has existed in Israel since its founding in 1948, and has become more acute since the Hamas attack that launched a 600-day war: Can the Israel Defense Force afford to exempt a large segment of draftable-aged Israelis from compulsory military service?

Three Haredi parties in Mr. Netanayhu’s ruling coalition are answerable to rabbis who have the power to mobilize their constituents. The parties — Agudat Israel, Degel Hatorah, and Shas — fear legislation that would result in their minions being drafted into the IDF. One bill was scheduled to come to a vote before the holiday of Shavuot, which was celebrated on Monday. For weeks, though, the Knesset avoided a vote. 

When Degel Hatorah leader, Moshe Gafni, opened a session of a Knesset committee he heads on Wednesday, an opposition member noted it might be its final meeting in the current legislator’s session. “Could be,” Mr. Gafni said. “It’s not out of the question.” 

On Tuesday night, the rabbis who control Agudat Israel and Degel Hatorah, which are allied under a United Torah Judaism bloc, refused to take a call from Mr. Netanyahu. They then announced their support for dissolving the Knesset and forcing a new election. The third Haredi party, Shas, is for now mum. 

Led by a veteran politician, Arieh Deri, Shas might join the other Haredi parties. While Shas voters support the draft exemption, though, they’re also “very attached to Bibi,” a top political analyst, Mazal Muallem, tells Kann News, referring to Mr. Netanyahu. Either way, even if just one party of the Haredi bloc votes against the coalition, it could collapse.

Together, that bloc controls 18 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. Mr. Netanyahu’s current coalition is supported by 64 Knesset members. The premier is torn between an unpopular move that would exempt the Orthodox and the need to maintain his coalition. 

Meanwhile, by severing ties with Likud and other of Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition, the Haredi parties seem to be making a hazardous bet. “Leaving the government doesn’t guarantee a better outcome for the Haredim,” a top political analyst at N12 television, Amit Segal, writes.

“What do they gain if, out of frustration over the lack of draft exemptions, they cause this government to collapse, go to elections, and then end up in the same position?” Mr. Segal adds. “In a best case scenario, they’ll wind up with the same government.” Otherwise, “they’re certainly not going to find a more friendly coalition partner,” if Mr. Netanyahu is ousted.   

For now, the top opposition parties are eager to join hands with the Haredim to unseat the premier. “Next week Yesh Atid will draft legislation to dissolve the Knesset,” the leader of that party and a top opposition leader, Yair Lapid, said Wednesday. 

Popularity polls, though, predict a major setback for Mr. Lapid, and for another opposition leader, Benny Gantz. The left-leaning Labour leader, Yair Golan, is rising in polls, while a former centrist prime minister, Naftali Bennett, leads Mr. Netanyahu when potential voters are asked who is best fit to lead the country.

The vast majority of Israelis are angry at the Orthodox. Reservists, who comprise the bulk of war-time IDF combat units, are forced to disrupt their civilian lives. Some have been called to risk life and limb in Gaza for the third or fourth time since the October 7 attacks. The army is reporting major manpower shortages, even as a segment of the population is exempt from the draft.     

Also, the Haredi politicians who are pressuring Mr. Netanyahu “might be unaware that his political base is pressuring him to oppose them,” Ms. Muallem, says. A large number of Likud voters, she notes, serve in Gaza and are irate over the draft exemption.

While the prime minister is being squeezed from all sides, he has proved to be a master politician by surviving major crises in the past. He might hope to postpone the onset of the current crisis until at least the end of the Knesset’s current summer session. Yet, “there’s no guarantee that he’ll reach July 27 as the Jewish state’s prime minister,” Mr. Segal writes.